The Blitzkrieg by Taliban supported by Pakistan’s army to capture Afghanistan and the badly managed retreat of forces by US from Afghanistan last year has brought the world to a situation where Bullies are going berserk.
Russian President Putin emboldened from what had happened a year back in Afghanistan, has blatantly disregarded the sovereignty of Ukraine and has challenged the International community.
When I wrote the following in my article ; US President Biden’s “Over the Horizon” Strategy ; Will it work for US ,a few months ago, I was not knowing that I will be proved right so soon, I wrote ;
“This Biden’s Policy of - No Boots on Ground is likely to cause more harm to US interests than do any good and may further create confusion amongst its allies and friends. US withdrawal might be complete, but can it afford to wind up its interests everywhere and if not then what would it do? Rely on its allies, and if allies have a doubt on US policies, then? No one loves to ally with a partner who is a reluctant supporter and does not stand by its friends in the times of crisis. This Policy decision may also have an adverse impact on its leadership image that US has enjoyed for last seven decades “.
“ The war in Afghanistan is not over and it has thrown up many new challenges” said Barry Pavel a senior vice president and director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council , he further stated ;
“United States now has a lot of work to do, to shore up its alliances in the wake of the poorly executed withdrawal. This, too, will require new efforts if the United States seeks to navigate this dangerous new era in a way that protects American security and prosperity”.
So, there was no doubt that the badly planned retreat by US Leadership had emboldened other rogue states and rulers to do what Pakistan and Taliban did in Afghanistan and get away lightly.
So, what Russia has done now is , it has not only challenged the international community but has once again encouraged other bullies like China and has put the fate of Taiwan and other littoral states at peril.
Putin after a year of this above rout in Afghanistan has perhaps taken a calculated risk. He might have thought of taking an advantage of weak US Leadership and division in EU to sort out its security challenges.
A Nation can live through the Economic sanctions as Indians have done after the nuclear tests and Iran has done so for many years, so shall the Russians. The economic sanctions are No solution and No deterrence.
This inaction or indifference on the part of International community on these two occasions ; Afghanistan and Ukraine will surely encourage many such rogue nations to change the borders.
US President Biden has although warned of "consequences" for Russia and said the world would "hold Russia accountable" for its actions and this would cause catastrophic loss of life and human suffering".
Whether the peace returns or the stake holders go to war, we can with certainty state that ; It all started from Pakistan and Afghanistan, when Taliban supported by Pakistan captured Afghanistan and US army resorted to badly planned Retreat, thereby emboldening the rogue rulers.