The US military recently reported an attack on an Indian-flagged crude oil tanker by a drone launched by Houthi militants controlling parts of Yemen. This marks the 15th attack on commercial shipping by the Houthis since the Israel-Palestine standoff. The Houthis, a Zaydi Shiite movement, have been in conflict with Yemen's Sunni-majority government since 2004.

Seizing Sanaa in 2014 and controlling much of north Yemen by 2016, the Houthis face accusations of receiving support from Iran and Hezbollah, which they and their backers deny. Tensions escalated in 2017 with a missile attack on Riyadh's airport claimed by the Houthis. In early 2022, the conflict widened as the Houthis targeted the UAE.

The ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict has provided the Houthis and Iran an opportunity to expand their influence further. The recent attack on a crude oil tanker indicates the Houthis' ability to threaten commercial shipping in crucial routes such as the Gulf of Aden, Red Sea, Suez Canal, and the Mediterranean, with significant economic implications.

Following the killing of a senior officer in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran warned of the potential closure of the Mediterranean Sea if perceived "crimes" in Gaza persist. Although Iran lacks direct access to the Mediterranean, its proxies in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon pose a threat to global trade.

In response, the US considers forming a maritime task force with France, the United Kingdom, and Israel to address the threat in the Red Sea. However, this move raises tensions, as demonstrated by recent attacks on US personnel in Iraq by Iran-backed militias.

Shipping companies are already rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the conflict-ridden Red Sea, increasing costs. With the Russia-Ukraine ongoing war and the Gaza conflict spreading, economic turmoil looms for many countries.

Moreover, as Israeli soldiers' casualties increase, Prime Minister Netanyahu faces growing domestic discontent. Thousands had appeared on the Roads opposing Netanyahu. While Kashmir differs from Gaza, the potential for terrorists operating from Pakistan inspired by Hamas exists. Caution is necessary, considering Israel's military actions in Gaza may not be replicable in the Kashmir region.

NATO’s two-day summit in Lithuania, culminated on 12 Jul.

Ukraine had pinned lot of hopes on this summit but except promises and assurances it got nothing.

Highlights ;

NATO leaders refused to set a clear timeline for Ukraine’s future membership in the alliance, which disappointed Ukraine President Zelenskky, who tweeted ; "It was unprecedented and absurd.”

The decision of not setting a clear timeline - was a diplomatic win for the United States. White House spokesperson John Kirby argued that the alliance could not accept Kyiv’s accession at this time without putting NATO at war with Russia. This had put the United States in a tight spot with some other NATO members, which wanted Ukraine to join..

So, as a reconciliation Biden and every NATO country leader assured Ukraine of continuous support in terms of war machinery to fight Russians.

French President Emmanuel Macron announced that Paris would supply Kyiv with long-range missiles, emphasizing the importance of sending “a message of support for Ukraine, of NATO unity, and of determination that Russia cannot and must not win this war.”

The United Kingdom followed by agreeing to continue providing Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

The G-7, also issued a joint declaration pledging “to provide Ukraine with swift and sustained security assistance, modern military equipment across land, sea and air domains, and economic assistance,”

The newly created NATO – UKRAINE Council also met for the first time and set the goal of tightening cooperation between the two parties.

All this did calm down Zelensky a bit.

And so he issued a mollifying statement after his One on One meet with Biden ; “The Ukrainian delegation is bringing home a significant security victory for the Ukraine, for our country, for our people, for our children,” “It opens for us absolutely new security opportunities, and I thank everyone who made it possible.”

In a joint press conference with NATO Secretary-General, Zelensky said: “We can state that the results of the summit are good, but if there had been an invitation to join NATO, they would have been perfect.”

Mood in Ukraine.

For last more than a year now the people of Ukraine have been facing war and numerous challenges, so its not surprising that 89% Ukrainians,  support joining the NATO alliance. They are concerned about their security, freedom, and therefore , it is quite likely that the Ukrainians might be DISAPPOINTED with the outcome of the NATO Summit.

Therefore , A Ukrainian activist Daria Kaleniuk asked U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan during a public forum ; “What should I tell my son? That President Biden and NATO didn’t invite Ukraine to NATO because he’s afraid of Russia - afraid of Russia losing or afraid of Ukraine winning?”

People in Ukraine are likely to feel that NATO’s refusal to set a timeframe for Ukraine’s membership was not only disrespectful but it also gives Russia motivation to “continue its terror.”

Conclusion.

So, Ukrainians have to save their Freeodm themselves against the mighty Russian armed forces. 

There is a lesson here for India too which is surrounded by inimical powers.

Secondly, whether Ukraine joins NATO or not is immaterial but following is absolutely clear now ;

One. None of Putin's objectives of war are likely to be achieved.

Two. Putin has driven Ukraine and other East European countries closer to NATO.

Three. NATO , particularly Europe has emerged more United than Putin had envisaged.

Four. He has ruined his own economy. 

The G20 Summit of 2023 marked the 18th gathering of the G20 Group, which concluded in India on September 10th, with India assuming the role of the host nation for this summit, as the President.

The G20, comprising of 19 sovereign nations, the European Union, and now the African Union, operates on a rotational basis for the presidency. India received the presidency on December 1st, 2022, and subsequently handed it over to Brazil. This raises the question of why such extensive funds were allocated for advertising and promotion, almost resembling an election campaign, when the presidency is based on rotation. Notably, promotional posters of Mr. Modi were prominently displayed, prompting concerns about the utilization of taxpayers' money for such purposes.

Moving on to the achievements of this Summit:

1. Contrary to expectations, the summit yielded a joint statement signed by the heads of state. It outlined commitments to:                        A. Accelerate strong, sustainable, balanced, and inclusive growth.  B. Expedite the full and effective implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. C. Enhance access to medical countermeasures and bolster supplies and production capacities in developing countries to better prepare for future health emergencies. D. Promote resilient growth by urgently addressing debt vulnerabilities in developing countries.
2. The African Union joined the G20 organization.
3. The leaders of India, the Middle East, Europe, and the USA proposed and approved the India-Middle East-Europe-USA Corridor.
4. A Global Biofuel Alliance was established by member countries, focusing on maximizing the use of biofuels.

Now, for a critical examination:

This summit repositioned the development agenda for developing economies at the forefront.

Despite various countries, including India, grappling with inflationary problems and food grain shortages, due to the on going war, the declaration only briefly mentioned the war in Ukraine, with no reference to Russia's aggression. This resulted in Moscow viewing it as a diplomatic victory, while Ukraine and several European nations expressed disappointment.

However, given the prevailing circumstances, it reflects India's skill in navigating a delicate situation and achieving a declaration that satisfied all parties, likely with U.S. influence playing a role.

The consensus on the declaration may have been reached by recognizing that the G20 primarily serves as a forum for international economic cooperation, rather than a platform for addressing geopolitical and security concerns among its member nations. Consequently, the Russia-Ukraine conflict received limited attention.

The India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a transnational rail and shipping route spread across two continents, which the US says is expected to stimulate economic development through improved connectivity and economic integration between Asia, Arabian Gulf and Europe. However, when and how it will be accomplished is yet to be finalised.

Notwithsatnding the above,few Historians claim that this is the Oldest trading route that carried fancy items including black pepper to Rome from India, it is older than the much Hyped and fancticised THE SILK ROUTE from China. 

Africa, a continent comprising 55 countries, was notably underrepresented in the G20, with only South Africa included while the European Union was fully represented. Considering China's increasing presence in Africa, the inclusion of the African Union may support India's development agenda on the global stage and potentially provide a diplomatic ally during negotiations. While India maintains positive relations with African nations, economic interests now play a pivotal role, and competing with China's substantial investments in Africa presents a challenge.

Despite these considerations, Arvind Panagariya, former vice-chairman of NITI Aayog, appropriately characterized India's success at the G20 Summit as a "sense of arrival," signifying India's growing global influence.

Lastly, the exceptional enthusiasm and interest displayed by the host country, India, make it difficult for other nations to replicate the achievements of the G20 Summit.

Russia blames UK naval specialists for helping and directing a massive drone attack on its Black sea fleet, recently in the Crimean port city of Sevastopol.

The attack by Ukrainian drones led to the destruction of Russia’s important naval ships belonging to its Black Sea Fleet . The Reports claim that the attack destroyed Russia’s newly acquired Black sea fleet’s flag ship - multi-role frigate Admiral Makarov and also the minesweeper Ivan Golubets.

 Russia also claimed that the drones were equipped with Canadian-made navigation.

A few weeks ago the US was blaming that Iranian troops have been assisting Russians in carrying out Drone attacks against Ukraine.

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, global powers have picked sides , whereas few remained neutral for their own commercial interests.

Russia in retaliation to this attack has now once again carried out a massive missile attack against civilian infrastructure targets in Ukraine that has caused severe impact on power and water supply in Ukraine.

In addition to this, Russia has pulled out of the agreement that was aimed at bringing down global food prices by allowing the export of grain from Ukrainian ports.

This would lead to a halt of movement of millions of tons of agricultural products, many of them bound for poor countries facing hunger due to high food prices.

UN Gen Secretary, appealed to all parties saying ;

“It is vital that all parties refrain from any action that would imperil the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which is a critical humanitarian effort that is clearly having a positive impact on access to food for millions of people around the world”.

Its increasingly becoming difficult now to keep various stake holders away from action , because of Oil, Gas and Food. 

One wrong step by Putin and things may just spiral out of Control.

WWII also had similar begining and Putin would find instead of bringing back the lost glory of erstwhile USSR, he may be held responsible for bringing disaster and misery.

Wars have never helped any country to regain its lost glory, they only led to destruction, misery and bloodshed.