We in India have a tendency to look down upon and mock at everything that originates from Pakistan and have a stereotyped image of it , as depicted above.

However, We are least qualified to be mocking at it because India does not have a National security Policy as yet, despite having faced numerous wars and separatist movements all over the country. As a result we have been resorting to adhocism when it comes to responding to various security challenges that the Nation has been / is facing.

The polity in subcontinent, by nature, is status quoist , that includes even Pakistan. It carries out reforms only when it faces a crisis. India carried out few military reforms after facing a humiliating defeat in 1962, thereafter Post Kargil and it started its economic reforms in 1991 when it became bankrupt.

So, given the fact that Pakistan has achieved this feat and announced its Security Policy, it should be studied carefully and critically examined. If we do not do so, Pakistan is one enemy which if succeeds, will not give us a SECOND CHANCE and an opportunity to reform.

Salient aspects of Pakistan’s Security Policy and What Pakistan’s Big wigs spoke.

1. New National Security Policy would act as an umbrella document, to be used as a guideline for Pakistan`s foreign, international and defence related policies.
2. The Policy document is meant for a period of five years from 2022 – 2026 but will be reviewed every year. PM Khan is projecting this Policy document as the country’s first ever strategy paper that would spell out the National security vision and guidelines for the attainment of National Goals.
3. The full 110-page NSP document would remain classified. However, a shorter nearly 50-page version is being published. Critical analysis of the state of affairs in various sectors is contained in the main document, and the implementation framework and the indicators developed for monitoring and evaluating the progress made towards the policy’s execution are not being included in the public version.
4. The document has sections on national cohesion, economy, defence, internal security , foreign policy and human security. Yes one may still find lots of gaps related to its implementation. But one can not deny that it is an important document which may if not lost to political whims and fancies will have a profound impact on the future of Pakistan.
5. The document has highlighted the need of Economic security and rather emphasized this as the central theme of the new national security policy and so underlined the need for peace in the region and cordial relations with the countries in the region. PM Khan said “ it was not possible for a country to remain secure for long if its economy was not stable. If you have to go to the International Monetary Fund at regular intervals, it means you security will be [adversely] affected”. 
6. The new policy also emphasized on “zero-tolerance” for any groups involved in terrorist activities on Pakistani soil. It said Pakistan will adopt a four-pronged policy of engagement: separating reconcilables from irreconcilables; cutting off recruitment; constricting financial sources; and pursuing targeted socio-economic policies to address governance-related concerns in regions where violent sub-nationalist elements operate.
7. The policy also underlines that extremism and radicalisation on the basis of ethnicity or religion pose a challenge to Pakistan and therefore inculcating interfaith and inter-sectarian harmony and societal tolerance in all its forms will be prioritized. PM Khan explained that the National Security Policy 2022-2026 centers on the government’s vision, which believes that the security of Pakistan rests in the security of its citizens. He during the debate on Policy further emphasizing the need of social cohesion said ; Any national security approach must priorities national cohesion and the prosperity of people while guaranteeing fundamental rights and social justice without discrimination,
8. The Policy, PM Khan during a Press brief also emphasized on the need of the rule of law. He said Rule of Law is important for prosperity and progress and strong presence of the rule of law is the prime reason behind the progress of any country . stressed the need for enforcement of law and compliance with contracts. 
   “One of the main reasons there is minimal foreign investment in Pakistan is that they [investors] do not trust Pakistan’s judicial system,” he said, adding that these companies and investors instead sought arbitration in international courts.
9. An official dealing with the Policy said “We are not seeking hostility with India for the next 100 years. The new policy seeks peace with immediate neighbours.”
10. Kashmir has once again been emphasized upon, although not as the core issue of conflict but as an issue for which Pakistan will always be committed to provide moral and financial support.
11. The policy is aimed at addressing three critical economic challenges, external imbalance, socio-economic inequalities, and geographic disparities between developed and under-developed regions of Pakistan.
12. When asked about the message it sends to India, its NSA said: “it tells India to do the right thing and jump on the bandwagon to benefit from regional connectivity to uplift our peoples. It also tells India, if you don’t want to do the right thing, it will be a loss to the entire region, but most of all India.”

Analysis.

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When both Russia and China for their own strategic purposes are investing in Pakistan and Pakistan expecting that Af-Pak region is likely to turn into a Gold mine, how can USA be behind, it will sooner or later be wooing Pakistan. This is perhaps the opinion of establishment in Pakistan about the visit of US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman.

India Visit

Although US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman who on the last day of her visit to India before moving to Pakistan stated that ; Washington has “no interest” in going back to the days hyphenating India and Pakistan, and that her trip to Islamabad is only for “specific and narrow purpose”, but lets not overlook the fact that its been really long since any US senior official has done so, They have been deliberately avoiding visiting India and Pakistan in tandem.

In order to justify the importance that India holds for USA she insisted on numerous occasions that her Pakistan visit is for a “particular set of reasons” and is not meant to once again rebuild a broader relationship with the country. She also mentioned it very categorically that ;

“We (the US) don’t see ourselves building our broad relationship with Pakistan and we have no interest in returning to the days of a hyphenated India, Pakistan. That’s not where we are, that’s not where we are going to be.” 

Change in Stance on Pakistan's soil.

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The 19th SAARC Summit was to have been held in Islamabad in November 2016 but was called off after India pulled out after the Uri terror attack that was blamed on Pakistan-based terrorists. Since then, come the winters , every year Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, blames India, as a ritual, for the postponement of the Annual summit of SAARC nations.

So, this year also, as expected, Pakistan foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi used the opportunity for India bashing. Qureshi while describing SAARC as an “important forum” blamed India for making this forum dysfunctional. He further added that : “Because of India’s obstinacy, this forum is suffering. If India does not want to come [for the Saarc Summit], then new means are available. I reiterate our invitation to all SAARC members and Pakistan is willing to host the 19th SAARC Summit in Islamabad. If India doesn’t want to come, they can attend virtually.  but they shouldn’t stop others. They should let others come and not affect this forum.”

Although Pakistan by capturing Afghanistan with the help of Taliban has achieved its geo strategic objective but its International image has suffered a huge set back. And now forget about diplomats and ministers visiting Pakistan for a summit even cricket teams are apprehensive of playing cricket in Pakistan.

Even if we leave Pakistan’s dwindling international status and focus on SAARC, we would notice that it is of little consequence for India and is now not a forum for any cooperation. Although it could play an important role in bringing prosperity and growth in the entire region but for reasons, as enumerated below, it lost the direction ;

One. SAARC summit cannot be held if even one member decides not to attend and as India had raised the ante and refused to do business as usual after Uri terror attack, it is now unlikely that India will be able to come down from that position till Pakistan does not take action against terror groups operating from Pakistan. So till India climbs down from that Position it is unlikely that a summit can be held in Pakistan.

Two. For any regional organization to be successful, every member state of that organization has to have an international perspective in spite of the responsibility of its members towards their national interests and sovereignty. However, the South Asian Nations are still suffering from that colonial era hang over of Ultra Nationalism. A noted Indian journalist Mr Pran Chopra once remarked ; ‘Excessive nationalism among members is one of the major obstacles in SAARC’s slow progress.’

Three. Although,SAARC charter excludes bilateral and contentious issues from any discussion. But almost every state in the region has problems in its bilateral relations with India ; Nepal has on the water distribution of Mahakali River and disputed border regions like Kalapani, Lipulekh, etc, Bangladesh had river water sharing issue and Pakistan has many problems with India. Hence achieving mutual trust and cooperation is a difficult task . The smaller nations feel India will use this forum to extend its dominance and India’s fear is that these small nations may gang up against India and form an alliance against India.

Four. Earlier foreign states like the USA had pursued its strategic interests by encouraging the mutual distrust and animosity among the states of the South Asian region it is now China’s turn. The US had previously used Pakistan as a spearhead to reduce India’s influence in the region and now China is doing the same. China has set up its own alternative to SAARC by launching the China-South Asia Emergency Supplies Reserve and Poverty Alleviation and Cooperative Development Centre, which includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The five countries are also all participants in the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative). Chinese Foreign Minister had also hosted a virtual meeting of the foreign ministers of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka in April this year to cooperate on Covid-19 vaccination and poverty alleviation in South Asian states. Taliban Govt in Afghanistan has already approached China for the extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the BRI’s flagship project, to Afghanistan.

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The US President in order to justify the retreat from Afghanistan declared a New policy of military intervention. He said ; as the terrorism has spread to newer areas and not restricted to only Afghanistan, they can be fought using Over the Horizon capabilities without Boots on ground. This implies for a layman that the US now intends fighting without the help of ground troops using Drones, fighter aircrafts etc.

This US policy is likely to have numerous future implications, not only for USA but also for the rest of the world and so, cannot be just wished away as it has come from the US President, himself.

One. If US proclaims that it will not use Ground troops in any eventuality and will employ only Over the Horizon capabilities, it implies that its allies in South East Asia are likely to be left confused and devoid of any reliable support. What will happen in case China plans to invade Taiwan? What if China in order to push its claims in South China Sea starts taking punitive action against Philippines etc? What if China starts suppressing the legitimate rights and interests of smaller states’ in the South China sea and elsewhere, and forcibly denies their exclusive sovereign rights and jurisdiction in their maritime zones? Leave aside military support, with this proclamation there is now no moral support also left with such small states that are vulnerable to Bullying by China.

Two. Whether, It was Iraq, Syria, Or Afghanistan, US military has used its air force including its UAVs extensively for command, control, communications, int, svl , recce and carried out thousands of drone attacks in Somalia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen, Iraq , so, is it not pertinent to ask ; Did it incapacitate the Jehadis, the ISIS, the Taliban, Afghanistan and Haqqani network operating in Pakistan or in Syria or in Iraq. In Syria the use of air power only helped the Syrian President Assad.

It may not be wrong to state here that after Osama was eliminated in 2011, it prima facie appears that US thereafter used only its drones and air power to dominate the area instead of using its Ground troops. And this can be substantiated by the fact that US suffered approx 2000 casualties till 2012 and thereafter in next 8 years till 2020 barely 200. This is a huge huge difference clearly indicating that after 2012, USA might have stopped using its Ground troops for area domination and for Ground operations. So this implies that Biden might have just made a formal announcement but it was in vogue since 2012.

As a result, Nine years of respite that Taliban got, were enough to resurrect and reorganize itself and strike with unbelievable speed and capture whole of Afghanistan.

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