The recent actions on the geo political front ; the capture of Afghanistan by Taliban with the overt support of Pakistan, the Chinese belligerence in South China sea and in Ladakh region, growing ineffectiveness of UNO, and now the invasion by Russia in Ukraine, are fast turning the world unruly and disorderly.
Ostensibly all these events are going to have an impact on every country including India and its neighbours and therefore we must understand its implications.
1. . The telephonic call of US Secy of State Mr Antony Blinken to his Indian counterpart Mr Jaishanker, and stressing on a “strong collective response to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.” is going to place India in a Catch 22 situation.
A. India has off late become an important member of Quad led by USA in order to ward OFF the emerging threat from belligerent and powerful China. Not supporting USA may disturb this recent bonhomie.
B. Inorder to offset dependence on Russian equipment , India had started looking towards USA. Not supporting USA may put an end to this newly developed relationship.
C. On the other hand is Russia which has never hurt India’s interests and stood firm and has also been a major weapon supplier of India.
D. The Russians despite the pressure have supplied S400 sophisticated missile system and as per US laws , US may take punitive action against India.
E. Although India imports barely 2 percent of its crude oil needs from Russia and six percent of refined oil, but Russia being one of the largest exporters, any sanctions on its oil export may push the prices. This will further enhance India’s problems as it imports 85% of its oil needs. Secondly, Will India then oblige Russia by importing more oil ?
2. In view of this precarious situation THAT India finds itself in, It needs to take following into account ;
A.The US Foreign policy has always hurt India and it has seldom stood by India.
B. Pakistan’s continuous support to Terrorism , Pakistan’s development of nuclear weapons have all happened under the watchful eyes of USA. USA continued to supplying weapons thereby emboldening Pakistan to wage proxy war against India , it also granted Pakistan the status of a Major Non NATO ally despite bleeding India for more than three decades.
C. Last year when China intruded into India’s territory and it led to a minor skirmish at Galwan, The US president never declared China as an aggressor when it had intruded into India’s territory and even softened his stand against China. US allies have always suffered be it those Afghans who supported US war against Taliban and al-Qaida .
D. Taiwan is facing the brunt of constant cyber attacks and threats from China due to US insincerity.
3. After taking a Holistic view of all the above, it would be prudent to maintain " Strategic Autonomy" and not be part of any camp. Now whether it is a Nehruvian wisdom or call of the day, is truly immaterial. India has made it very clear while NOT VOTING in UN against Russia that it does not Favour war but it also does not want to get involved in this War, where West wants to humiliate Putin.
However when we look at the world today and the events unfolding Post covid , we find that the situation on the global front is increasingly becoming like as it existed prior to WWI and WWII.
A. The two great wars; WWI and WW II were fought because the revanchists and irredentists pushed their countrymen into war. Hitler sold the idea of German race supremacy, Mussolini wanted to regain the lost glory of Roman empire and Japanese emperor also did the same. Hitler and Mussolini espousing a desire to bring back the glory of their Past greatness and superiority inspired their population and led the world to a path of collision and WW II.Both of them first insisted on the cultural and racial superiority of their countrymen and started a modernization and rearmament process.
B. Currently, Many regional powers are now once again in the hands of revanchists who have a desire to regain the lost glory of their past. These Govts encourage nationalism that is based on irredentism (correcting perceived historical wrongs) and revanchism (a policy of seeking to retaliate, especially to recover lost territory and lost glory ). Russia is asserting to regain its past glory, Turkey is also endeavoring the same, China and even India is being headed by a GOVT that encourages this kind of Nationalism. Even US Republicans also are not way behind as Trump supporters look at Putin as a white Christian - a hero who is an ally to fight Chinese.
C.The Multinational forum ; UNO established post WWII to resolve global issues is increasingly becoming ineffective and prone to manipulation by member nations. As a result it is losing its credibility.
D. There is an air of indifference around. The world is becoming multi polar with plenty of regional powers who are basically revanchists. USA post WWI isolated itself from the global politics till it was dragged into the WWII by Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour. This is exactly what Obama and Biden have been doing.
E. This indifference may embolden many other states including China to redraw their maps.
All this might appear to be a figment of the imagination or delusion today, but the fact remains that there are hardly any examples wherein revanchists have ever brought prosperity and peace to their countrymen.