In 2015, the Syrian President Al Assad was close to losing control over the country to the Opposition rebels armed with sophisticated weaponry - including anti-aircraft stinger missiles. However, Within a short period of six months, Russian fighter aircrafts carried out 9000 sorties and bombarded rebels’ positions relentlessly and halted the rebels.
But in the ongoing war in Ukraine, the Russian air force, which is many times powerful than Ukrainian Airforce, is still not seen in the numbers that was expected and that is baffling many security experts. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, United States intelligence had predicted a blistering air assault by vast Russian air power that its military assembled in order to dominate Ukraine’s skies. Their officials had estimated that Russia had potentially readied hundreds of the thousands of aircraft in its air force for a Ukraine mission
Usually, every military before the army’s land campaign commences its airforce tries to achieve Air Dominance so that its ground troops are not vulnerable to enemy’s air attacks. However, since this war began on 24 feb the Russians have avoided using its air force which is many times superior to ukraininan air force. (Refer Chart above).
Dr Mauro Gilli, a senior researcher at the Swiss Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETH-Zurich)says “ Russia has refrained from deploying jet fighters and bombers to strike targets in Ukraine,” he further states that “Ukrainian air defences have not been completely neutralized and Ukraine still has degrees of capacity to detect, acquire and engage Russian aircraft in the air…Instead, Ukrainian air force fighter jets are still carrying out low-level, defensive counter-air and ground-attack sorties”.
Another security expert says that “Ukrainian troops with surface-to-air rockets are able to threaten Russian aircraft and create risks for Russian pilots trying to support ground forces.
Another US General says that - While the Russians have been underperforming, Ukraine’s military has been exceeding expectations so far and as every day it goes on, there’s a cost and the risk goes up. And they’re not doing that and it just is really hard to explain for any realistic reason.”
This has peculiar behavior of Russians has left many analysts and officials questioning if there’s something wrong with one of the world’s most powerful air powers.
Explanations.
Everyone is coming out with his own explanations;
- Dr Mauro Gilli, a senior researcher at the Swiss Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETH-Zurich)says “ Footage coming out of the conflict zone and being shared on Youtube and Twitter shows that Russian helicopters and jets are flying fast at low altitudes, in what appears to be a manoeuvre to avoid detection by radars, This is perhaps because - For months now, the United States and its allies have shipped arms to Ukraine that also include air defence capabilities. According to Gilli - it's possible that Ukrainian forces may have some capability to detect Russian jets from far away, which allows them to deploy Portable Hand held air defence systems right when and where they are needed. Smart use of less sophisticated air defence system can also be deadly, as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces found out in the 1999 air war against Serbia. Air defence systems pose a serious threat for the aircraft: when detected, a pilot will be forced to adopt an evasive maneuver and possibly drop the bomb way sooner if he doesn’t have a precision missile,” says Gilli.
- An Indian army Officer says that ; Russia is not mounting a full-scale assault because it is concerned about civilian casualties. He further said; “As far as Russia is concerned, their focus was not the local population being subjugated, but they wanted to change the regime to one that is pro-Russia because Ukraine joining the European Union has serious security implications for Russia.”
- They’re not necessarily willing to take high risks with their own aircraft and their own pilots,” A US airforce officla claimed. Another US Officer claimed that ; “ Perhaps there is a lack of coordination between the Ground forces and the airforce. The Russians are discovering that coordinating multi-domain operations is not easy …And that they are not as good as they presumed they were.”
Conclusion.
In my opinion to state that the Russians are incapable to coordinate their land and air resources would be grossly wrong.
Instead, the reason for limited use of air force can be;
One. To avoid any collateral damage to civilian population. Had they tried achieving air dominance before the launch of ground troops there would have been numerous civilian casualties as well, which the Russians perhaps wanted to avoid, so as not to antagonize the civilian population. They are aware that even if they change the regime, but without the public support, they will never be able to have an amicable neighbor. Hence, the Russians must have decided even at the grave risk to their own ground troops to use their attack hepters and fighter air crafts only in close air support role. This is clearly an indication that Russia’s sole aim is to change the regime and not to subjugate the civilians .
Two. Incase they try to achieve air dominance and use their Airforce extensively, there are chances of heavy civilian casualties. This will surely create a furor amongst the world community and may bring in NATO Airforce also in the fray, making it difficult for the Russian forces to achieve their objectives and there will also be escalation of warfare, which Putin knows will be more harmful for Russia.
Three. Achieving Air superiroty might expedite the Ground forces campaign but perhaps Russians want to go slow , so as to give enough opportunity to the Ukrainians to come to terms and negotiate peace as per the desire of Russians.
Inview of the above, it is quite likely that If Putin continues to avoid using his AIRFORCE to achieve air superiority, the Russian land forces may face a stiff challenge from the Ukrainians and there are strong chances that instead of changing the Regime, the Ukrainian President may emerge as a Hero and much more stronger than what Putin might like to have. The war for Putin may prove to be his WATERLOO.