The Image shows the Areas under conflict in 2014.

 

Before we dwell into present crisis between Russia and Ukraine it is important we go back into history and try and find as to how Nations and its people reach a state where they have little control over the events and suffer innumerable miseries. Often the politicians prick the past wounds, do not let the people forget those wounds and cause more miseries.

Background.

Its important for all Indians to go through the Background and grasp its quintessential elements because they bear huge importance to our future as well. The scholars say that History often repeats itself.

WWI had radically altered the  European map, It led to the defeat of the Central powers ; Austria- Hungary, Germany, Bulgaria and the ottoman empire i.e Turkey. Meanwhile in 1917 Bolsheviks had acquired power in Russia which led to the founding of Soviet Union, which brought Ukraine also in its control.  

The allies who won the war such as France, UK, Belgium, Italy, Romania and Greece gained territory and new nation states were created out of the collapse. The impact of collapse of ottoman empire was felt all over world where muslims resided. including India where it led to Khilafat Movement against Britishers who dismantled the Caliphate of Ottoman empire.  

Ostensibly , all these societies who lost territories or were imposed restrictions under treaty of Versailles must have had grievances to settle. Thus gradually , this led to strong racial movement led by those who believed that a HISTORICAL WRONG has been done to them and so they encouraged nationalism that was based on irredentism (popular movements based on correcting perceived historical wrongs) and revanchism (a policy of seeking to retaliate, especially to recover lost territory ). . This process started in Italy under Mussolini and in Germany under Hitler.

Post WW I The German Empire was dissolved and a democratic government, known as the Weimar Republic was created. Italy, although was an ally of UK in WWI and had made some post-war territorial gains; but the, Italian nationalists charged with the greatness of Roman empire were angered that the promises made by UK and France before the war were not fulfilled in the peace settlement.

So, from 1922 onwards a Nationalist  movement led by Mussolini seized power in Italy and repressed socialist, left-wing and liberal forces, and pursued an aggressive foreign policy aimed at making Italy a world power and a promise to bring back the glory of ROMAN EMPIRE.

Thus Hitler who acquired power in 1933 and Mussolini espousing a desire to bring back the glory of their Past greatness and superiority inspired their population and led the world to a path of collision and WW II. Both of them first insisted on the cultural and racial superiority of their countrymen and started a modernization and rearmament process . This obviously led to violation of human rights of minorities and we now know what Germans did to jews. Once they felt strong they started invading neighboring countries with an aim to capture those areas which they believed were theirs in past and that finally led to WWII.

If WWI had an impact on Europe, the WWII changed the political alignment and social structure of the globe. The Soviet Union and the United States emerged as rival super powers setting the stage for the nearly half-century-long cold war. It also triggered a decolonization process of Africa and Asia. Most countries whose industries had been damaged moved towards their own economic recovery and this triggered a decolonization process of Africa and Asia.. The Allies established occupation administrations in Austria and Germany. The former became a neutral state, non-aligned with any political bloc. The latter was divided into western and eastern occupation zones controlled by the Western Allies and the Soviet Union.

Germany lost a quarter of its pre-war territory. Among the eastern territories, Silesia, Neumark and Pomerania were seized by Poland, and East Prussia was divided between Poland and the Soviet Union, The Soviet Union also took over the Polish provinces east of the Curzon line,  north-east Romania, parts of eastern Finland, and the three Baltic states were merged into Soviet Union. Germany was divided into two independent states.  West Germany and the  East Germany were created within the borders of allied and soviet occupation zones. The rest of Europe was also divided , Most Eastern and Central European countries fell   into Soviet sphere, , which led to establishment of Communist-led regimes, with support of the Soviets. As a result, East Germany, Poland, Hungary, Romania, Czechoslovakia , Albania became satellite soviet states. It also led to a bipolar world ; the NATO and Soviet led warsaw pact countries.

In early 80s when Gorbachev became the President of USSR , he inorder to improve the economically burdened USSR launched a series of reforms popularly called Glasnost and Prestoirika which basically meant ; openness and reconstruction.

These reforms gradually, when percolated into the system which was managed by an iron hand of Communists, it set a series of events both within USSR and also in East Europe. Gorbachev’s decision to loosen the Soviet repression on the countries of Eastern Europe created an independent, democratic momentum that led to the collapse of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, and thereafter it led to the overthrow of Communist rule throughout Eastern Europe.

After the demise of Communist regimes in Eastern Europe, many east European countries and the Baltic States which were part of Soviet Union demanded independence from Moscow. In many such states ethnic violence also erupted because people were divided by the artificial frontiers drawn after the Russian revolution, WWI and WWII.

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Although Russia and India signed a flurry of trade and arms deals during President Vladimir Putin's visit to New Delhi for talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently, including the production of Kalashnikov assault rifles. But it is unlikely that their relations will ever be of the same level as they existed prior to USSR’s disintegration.

Almost around the same dates, US organized a virtual summit of almost 100 Democratic Nations including some of them where democracy is being stifled, in order to redeem its leadership status that got dented post Afghanistan debacle. But, whether the summit will ultimately live up to its worthy mission, only time will tell for instance; European Union is slightly reluctant about the return of U.S. global leadership and it wishes to build its independent relations that are not tied up with USA. 

The geo political environment has undergone a change and we need to understand the relationship not only with Russia but also with other nations including China in that context.

The two countries India and Russia despite the old relations, their trade has not crossed 10 billion dollars whereas, with China with whom India has fought a war and has a border dispute that recently led to a skirmish on the border, the trade has crossed 100 billion dollar mark this year.

During the recent meet the two countries (Russia and India) having set a very modest target ; to boost annual trade to $30 billion by 2025 is an indicator that the private sector is not very enthusiastic with trade and business with Russia as it is with China.

Two. The Growing India-US relations are an irritant that has loomed large over Delhi-Moscow ties. Mr Modi even held a big rally for Donald Trump in 2020 when he visited India.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov chose to speak openly when India joined Quad – and said that the Quad is an attempt by West “To engage India in anti-China games by promoting Indo-Pacific strategies.

Three. China's deteriorating ties with the US also appear to have pushed Beijing and Moscow closer. Russia has been compelled to forge closer ties with China to secure its economic and geopolitical interests in Asia as the US-led West also seeks to dominate the region.

Four. Russia and China openly supported the Taliban regime and the Russian Foreign Minister did not even include India in the talks. He invited Pakistan, China, USA, Iran etc including Taliban representatives but not India. Although, their Security Advisor was recently present at the meeting organized by Dobhal on Afghanistan but prima facie Russia’s goals in Afghanistan are largely aligned with China and Pakistan and that leaves India with very little influence in the region.

International Politics; My Country First.

The rise of “my country first” politics in the world’s advanced industrial democracies has had a spillover into the international sphere.

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Riots in Kazakhastan.

In the first days of 2022, Kazakhstan FACED the most intense and violent protests in its 30-year history of independence. Although they started as small-scale protests in West Kazakhstan DUE TO a sudden increase in gas prcies , the events grew into large-scale looting and violence all over the country including the country’s largest city – Almaty.

Ostensibly Social media has a role to play for protest to grow in such dimensions.

The protesters had a diverse array of actors on the ground with protesters having no unified agenda nor leadership, they looted banks, shops and burnt public and private property.

Reasons.

Many theories are being extended ;

  1. Poilitical rivalry between the ex President who is now the Chairman of Security Council and the current President. The current President wanting to strengthen his hold has now ousted the Chairman of the Council and also the PM.
  2. Frustration brewing in the country due to unemployment (increased by 12 percent in 2021) and reduced incomes due to covid, corruption and in equal distribution of income. Covid has also disproportionately affected internal migrants, such as young men with low-income backgrounds who came to cities from rural areas in search of job opportunities. The protesters have been overwhelmingly young men
  3. Tablikhis from Afghanistan and Pakistan are using this opportunity to spread fundamentalism. They have been trying to make inroads in Central Asia including in Kazakhstan. It is alleged to have played a role in creating such an atmosphere in Kazakhstan, known for its liberal and secular values. The group is banned across Central Asia, Iran and Russia but not in Pakistan. Pakistan backed the activities of the Tablighi Jamaat even after the recent ban on the group by Saudi Arabia.
  4. Some are also asking for Political reforms in the country fed up of authoritative rule for last 30 years.

Impact.

  1. The Russian Govt intervened using the protection clause of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a Russian version of NATO, and moved its armed forces into Kazakhstan for damage control. This move can have potentially sweeping consequences for geopolitics in the region as There is a large Russian speaking population residing on borders between Russia and Kazakhstan. This may increase hostilities between the Kazakh- and Russian-speaking populations of the country.
  2. Kazakhstan also matters to the United States, as it has become a significant country for American energy concerns, with Exxon Mobil and Chevron having invested tens of billions of dollars in western Kazakhstan.
  3. Such political instability will also help the fundamentalists and Terror organizations from Afghanistan, Pakistan to exploit.
  4. Presence of Russian forces in Kazakhstan may also lead to tensions between USA and Russia. The violations of Human rights by the Political powers may lead to a situation like it exists in Syria , wherein various actors are into the fray. 
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Pakistan has launched a global campaign to garner support for the Taliban government in Afghanistan, its senior officials including the Foreign Minister and PM are making all out efforts to ensure that Taiban Govt gets the world’s recognition.

The gist of Pakistan’s message is that failure to engage with the Taliban will lead to humanitarian disaster and also security consequences. In his speech at the United Nations General Assembly last weekend, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan said, “There is only one way to go. We must strengthen and stabilize the current government, for the sake of the people of Afghanistan.”

So, at one hand they are resorting to Emotional selling of Taliban to the Western world and on the other hand issuing a threat as well. This has been Pakistan's old trick.

It is quite likely that West particularly USA may soon under some pretext, start the aid to Taliban Govt, like it has been dealing with Pakistan for last so many years. Pakistan , having been a Blue eyed boy of the Western world, knows; which side of the Bread is to be buttered.

Instead of focusing on what US does or does not do, we all must do our job and that is to tell the world, the naked truth about Pakistan and its Jehadi factory because ;

One, it’s a question of our saftety and security.

Secondly, its quite likely that many in the Western world may not be aware of the truth as foreign policy issues are never an Election agenda. 

lastly, Many in west believe that Indians have a long history of rivalry with Pakistan and so they cannot take India’s accusations on face value.

Therefore, instead of pointing fingers towards Pakistan we need to raise questions and allow people to find their answers and come to the conclusion themselves .

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About Us

Our journey as a modern nation statestarted in 1947 with the historic speech byPandit Jawaharlal Nehru, with 95% illiteracy, barely any industry and transport system, armed forces that were divided due to partition lacking equipment was largely in disarray, if there were guns- then the dial sights were taken away by Pakistanis, making the guns ineffective, if there were files- maps were taken way by Pakistanis, if there were battalions, half the men had gone away to Pakistan and so on.


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