The security experts, world over have been trying to decipher and analyse the lessons that one can draw from Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Almost 150 years ago the great German statesman Bismarck had remarked, “Only a fool learns from his own mistakes. The wise learns from the mistakes of others.”
So in that sense, General Naravane, the erstwhile Chief of Army Staff was right, when he said;
“We should be ready for a Conventional war and learn lessons from the Ukraine war”.
He had said this because many security experts have been advocating for decades that the current geo political situation does not allow a conventional war to take place and even if it takes place, it will be short and intense. The invasion by Russia has brought back the reality of conventional war. Hence this war waged by Russia has finally changed the mindset; It is Conventional and it is not short.
Notwithstanding the above, we can only be ready and prepare ourselves provided we derive right lessons from this ongoing Russia – Ukraine war and execute them.
We live with Dangerous Neighbours and We are alone. At no stage we must forget that we have two rogue nations as neighbours to deal with. Though war is the last option adopted by Nations when all other measures have failed to achieve the Foreign policy objective but it still remains a potent option for a rogue state/ ruler and this fact must never be lost sight of that we have two such states adjoining us. We must also keep in mind and keep ourselves ready for Pakistan is not likely to remain weak forever and we may in future have to face a resurgent Pakistan.
No other country or Alliance will come to our help if we are attacked. Yes, they may provide us weapon systems and financial help and also impose sanctions on the invader but that also depends on many factors. For instance, if China attacks India, China may not face the same kind of stringent sanctions as Russia is facing now.
So, if the invader has done his homework well and insulated his economy from initial shock, the current geo – political situation emboldens rogue nations to take such steps as has been taken by Russia.
Wars are not fought on battlefield today with few sq kms of frontage. Even urban areas, thousands of Kms in depth can face destruction, and now with technological advancement the wars are fought at various domains including psychological and cyber domain. If India has to face a conventional war now it will not be restricted to only border areas, unlike it happened in 1962, 1965, 1971 and in Kargil war. Now, even our cities, hospitals, schools located thousands of kms away from Border can be targeted and can come under enemy’s fire. Hence, besides being geared up administratively to control the destruction and sufferings in depth areas, we need to make our entire administrative set up strong enough to sustain itself against cyber-attack. Modern societies are hugely dependent on computer systems and the internet to manage the infrastructure that supports urban centres. A major cyber-attack can paralyse the whole administration and can cause great harm to a nation's security and capacity to defend itself.
Become a Porcupine. In view of the fact that wars today are fought in various domains, it is important for a country like India which has two rogue nations to deal with to become like a Porcupine.
The porcupines are basically rodents weighing barely 7 kgs are armed with spines or quills which protect them from predators. The quills, or spines, are almost 30,000 in number that are embedded in cluster in his skin. Although a single spike may not appear to be sharp but together in a cluster, they are so sharp that they get embedded in an attacker.
Hence, we may not be able to fill the Quality and Quantity gap with China any time sooner, but can surely integrate our resources like the Ukrainians have done and inflicted heavy losses on Putin’s forces. The Ukrainians because of the integration of surveillance systems, hand held anti-tank and anti-air craft weapon systems have been able to deter superior air force and powerful armoured columns. One Ukrainian soldier reportedly commented “If Russians have more tanks, we have more anti-tank weapons”.
They have shown how a small force, if appropriately employed and equipped with hand held weapon systems can still stop the powerful invader.
Therefore, taking a cue from Ukrainians, we can meanwhile attempt to become a PORCUPINE, develop spines/ quills in cluster; focusing on Quantity/ Numbers, integrating our surveillance systems, integrating our hand-held anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems and achieving ability to employ hard hitting mobile teams, developing teams for waging cyber-attack on enemy systems rather than merely focusing on Quality of weapon systems, this can happen in due course of time.
Once we develop these spines or quills and are able to deploy them in clusters, we can deter these two predators effectively.
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