A few years ago, India's External Minister articulated in his book "The India Way: Strategies for an Uncertain World" that the global order is in a state of transformation. He observed that the world, once predominantly unipolar following the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, is now displaying clear signs of evolving into a multipolar landscape. China has ascended as the world's second-largest economy and a significant military force, while middle powers such as Germany, Japan, India, and Brazil are assuming influential roles in shaping this new global order.

This transition from unipolarity to multipolarity has generated a fluid and dynamic international geopolitical environment. Even NATO countries have at times diverged from the United States' decisions. Regional powers like India, Japan, Indonesia, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, and South Korea have expanded their influence within their respective regions and on the global stage. Numerous associations and groupings, such as BRICS, SCO, and ASEAN, have emerged where the USA's presence is not even as an observer.

In response, the US initiated the QUAD as a countermeasure against China but had to adjust its objectives under pressure from India. More recently, the US faced challenges garnering support for its sanctions against Russia, reflecting a shift in global dynamics.

However, contrary to what India's Foreign Minister wrote ; China's strategy is now focused on securing a position in the global order alongside the USA, potentially creating a bipolar world. Two recent events exemplify this approach:

1. The recent BRIC Nations summit in Johannesburg saw China taking centre stage. It successfully advocated for the expansion of the bloc to include six new member countries, namely Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. This move strengthens China's position within the group and provides an alternative to Western-dominated forums like the G-20.
2. President Xi planning to skip the G20 Summit scheduled in India is also an indicator of China's strategy of distancing from Western-led institutions. This economic bloc has traditionally been dominated by the United States and its allies. China by Skipping the summit and enlarging other groups will thereby not only undermine New Delhi’s efforts to establish itself as a Global player but is also sending signals that China is not willing to play a second fiddle role anymore.

Amidst this power rivalry, smaller nations, as observed in South Asia wherein China and India are jostling for space, countries like Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka, often have to resort to balancing act . While India is not a small nation, But China's ambitions for a Bipolar world may place India in a delicate position.

When the Chief of Russia’s mercenary group, that is fighting in Ukraine and comprising of retired soldiers from elite regiments of Russia’s army in an audio message challenged Putin,it reminded me of an old adage ; Snake biting its own tale.

The Chief of the mercenary group called Wagner Group officialy called PMC Wagner that was nurtured by Putin himself said ;

“We are going onwards and we will go to the end. We will destroy everything that stands in our way."

This is perhaps the most audacious challenge to President Vladimir Putin since the start of the offensive in Ukraine last year.

The issue at hand is not what Wagner group can achieve or can not achieve, but more important is the lesson that it carries particularly for our own Rightists in India who have been eulogising Putin as he appeared to have been aspiring for what the rightists back home in India dream ; Akhand USSR and Akhand Bharat respectively.

Coincidentally , Savarkar was an admirer of Hitler and Mussolini and so it was not surprising that the Savarkars’ followers admired Putin.

Putin and the Indian rightists have the same Dreams.

Like any seasoned dictator Putin’s main goals were;

One, He wanted to maintain his Absolute power and this he achieved by bringing constitutional amendments.

Two. He wanted Russia to regain the status that the Soviet Union lost with the end of the Cold War. So, he and his supporters propagated that he’s the only person capable to achieve this grandiose aim.

This is exactly what Mr Modi and his supporters are trying to achieve. They are also selling this dream of Akhand Bharat right upto Gandhar. They have now even placed the Akhand Bharat mural in the New Parliament building , at the cost of irking the neighbours ; Nepal and Pakistan.

Sadly, the gullible Russians believed in this idea and this propelled Putin to invade Ukraine.

The Dream Becoming a Nightmare.

Despite a long war extending to more than a year , Putin’s forces could not capture Ukraine and in the bargain lost thousands of soldiers , lost few generals, its flagship Moscova had sunk and its economy crippled due to sanctions.

The Dream of capturing Ukraine which looked distant a year ago has now turned into a Nightmare, wherein Russians may now be fighting their own countrymen.

Putin now has very little to show to its people, rather he has brought misery to his people.

Its interesting to go through what Dan Slater, professor of political science at the University of Michigan had said; “At least for now, Putin is ushering in every outcome that he wanted to avoid;

• He hasn’t divided NATO; he’s rather united NATO.
• He hasn’t made NATO move away from enlargement; he’s made NATO more likely to enlarge.
• He hasn’t reduced the street protests against him—in both Ukraine and Russia—he has increased street protests.and now even his own darling force, nurtured by him ; The Wagner Group has revolted against him
• He hasn’t helped the Russian economy; he’s devastating the Russian economy.
• He hasn’t made Russia a more respected player globally; he’s made it a rogue state in the world.
• Literally, everything Putin wanted to accomplish, right now he’s achieving the opposite”.

Lessons from History.

Mussolini wanted “Akhand Italy” ; To regain the lost status of Great Roman empire that extended beyond Italy,

Hitler wanted Akhand Germany – that included many other independent Nations (Austria, parts of Poland etc) , Putin wanted Akhand USSR –  includes many independent nations that broke away in 1991 and now our own Govt wants Akhand Bharat.

The consequences are right in front of us, its now for the people to take a call. I am of the opinion that such dreams are UNREALISTIC and are sold by the Autocrats and Dictators to dupe the masses and lead them to misery. History is full of such examples that - whenever a Nation tried pursuing these unrealistic dreams it destroys itself and brings misery to its own people.

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The visit of Pakistani foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto , to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit to be held in Goa is making news these days.

Some feel that as this the first visit to India by a Pakistani foreign minister since 2011, there is something brewing or may be the two foreign ministers may meet on the side lines of the summit.

However, in my opinion Pakistan Bhutto Zardari’s visit is less an attempt to patch up ties with New Delhi than an opportunity to strengthen engagement with the SCO and advance its own foreign-policy interests.

China and Russia are the most dominant partners of this group and Pakistan is the closest ally of former and an important new friend of the later. As a result, Pakistan enjoys a better clout than India in this organisation.

Although, India currently chairs the eight-member group, established in 2001 but its clout in the SCO is limited by the presence of its arch rival China. Moreover, the war in Ukraine has also compelled Russia to be closer to China implying waning Russian influence.

Pakistan and Central Asia.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation comprises of members mainly from Central Asia who do not have direct access to India and with China enjoying a dominant position and Pakistan having land-based accessibility to these states it gives Pakistan an added advantage. Pakistan hopes to deepen engagement to expand trade and connectivity—and it is already succeeding: In 2021, Uzbekistan inked a deal with Pakistan and Afghanistan to develop a transnational rail system. The expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Central Asia and Pakistan is likely to open new opportunities for bilateral trade and investment cooperation, and facilitating regional connectivity. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is the flagship project of BRI that can offer Central Asian countries, which are mainly Land locked, an access to the Gwadar seaport.

India and Central Asia.

Like Pakistan, India is also endeavouring to develop ties with resource-rich Central Asian states but it suffers a major handicap ; it has no direct accessibility. However, India has compensated by establishing new modes for regular meetings with governments in the region.

 India’s close political relations with the erstwhile Soviet Union had helped India to continue old diplomatic ties with Central Asia. Post 1991, after the disintegration of Soviet Union and Due to increasing presence of China, India had to reinvent its Central Asia Policy. Thus in 2012 it formulated a broad-based approach called; Connect Central Asia Policy to develop political, security, economic, and cultural connections.

In 2016 it became a member of Ashgabat Agreement. It is a multimodal transport agreement between India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Oman, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in order to create an international transport and transit corridor facilitating transportation of goods between Central Asia and the Persian Gulf.  

The Changing Geo-Political scenario.

Due to the changing geo political situation in the region after the withdrawal of USA from Afghanistan and also the Ukraine war, which has brought Russia closer to China, the Central Asian countries are increasingly becoming important and emerging as a battle ground particularly between USA and China.

Therefore, Pakistan’s Foreign minister visit to Goa may be because, Pakistan does not want to cede any ground to India when it comes to Central Asia.

India after the recent terror attack in Kashmir may not be wanting to revive the relations that too a year prior to the Lok sabha elections, that are due next year. Similarly, Pakistan also is unlikely to forge a dialogue with New Delhi when they are also due for elections and would not like to extend a hand because of India’s Kashmir policy and treatment of Indian Muslims. In Pakistan, there is already a feeling that Pakistan has not done enough for Kashmiri Muslims and now off course the rest of the Indian muslims who are under pressure of Right wing activists.

Conclusion.

Bilawal Bhutto’s visit is therefore a regional necessity for Pakistan and not a bilateral one. Bhutto would not have liked to skip the SCO summit, because not only it would strengthen Pak’s ties with China and Russia but it also allows Pakistan to cultivate deeper ties with Central Asian countries and ultimately limit India's influence in this region.

In an encounter with LET Terrorists that started around 9 am in Bazi Mal Upper forests in Kalakote, dist Rajouri, refer map, five soldiers of Indian army died while fighting the terrorists during an operation that started on 22 Nov.

Those who laid down their lives fighting terrorists were Captain M V Pranjal (63 RR) of Mangalore area of Karnataka, Captain Shubham Gupta (9 Para) of Agra of Uttar Pradesh, Havaldar Abdul Majid (Para) of Ajote in Poonch, Lance Naik Sanjay Bist of Halli Padli area of Nainital and Paratrooper Sachin Laur of Aligarh, Uttar Pradesh.

Lets go through the article that was published in May 2023, because the aspects involved then are still applicable.

Background.

The recent attack in Beembhar Gali (BG) near Poonch in which 5 army men lost their lives must make the Govt sit up and take cognisance of the security situation in a holistic manner.

Surely, in these last 9 years that this Govt is in power, it must have realised that Kashmir imbroglio can certainly not be resolved merely by unfurling TIRANGA at Lal Chowk or by revoking article 370. There is still a lot has to be done.

The attack on Indian army vehicle was not just a grenade attack by one odd terrorist but was a well-planned ambush, carried out by several terrorists who fired armour piercing bullets at the vehicle from many directions and thereafter escaped taking away the weapons of the dead soldiers. Perhaps for all we know that those terrorists were waiting for a bigger convoy and it did not turn up.

 This was the second major terror attack this year in Pir Panjal region, earlier in Jan, seven civilians lost their lives and thirteen others were injured in indiscriminate firing by the terrorists in Rajouri.

Why should we be taking this attack seriously?

National security is often understood as the capacity of a nation to mobilise military forces to deter or defend against military aggression by rival states and non-state actors, such as terrorists.

However, we must not overlook the impact of Non-Military dimensions on security. These include; economic inequality, political marginalisation, political exclusion and so on. Very often, when Govts over look or undermine these Non-Military dimensions, it causes frustration, alienation and become a root cause of militancy in the region.

With this as a back drop, we now examine the seriousness of this attack.

One. This incident shows that ISI’s terror infrastructure is still intact, and it could be made operational as and when required. The ISI has been able to keep it live despite all the pressure that India could exert all these years.

Two. USA is now once again reviving its relations with Pakistan and has got them out of the FATF (Financial Action Task Force) Grey list, thereby opening the doors to IMF funds in order to bail them out of economic turmoil. Even Russia is improving relations with Pakistan.

Three. After the ambush, the terrorists could easily melt away into the thick forest, taking away the weapons of the dead soldiers. It implies that they had the knowledge of the area. This brings us to the point that there must be locals who might have helped them. This is an indicator that the local militants are now once again growing in confidence and have started assisting the Pakistani terrorists. The attack on Hindus in Rajouri this year substantiates this.

Four. Abrogating article 370 through manipulation, was although appreciated by many but I had written earlier, its success would largely depend on how fast the Govt can restart the democratic process in the state and bring in fresh faces in Kashmir politics who could replace the Muftis and Abdullahs. But this has not happened as yet and so these attacks therefore are a reminder to all of us that in the absence of a comprehensive political settlement that involves all parties, one cannot claim to achieve victory.

Five. The communal environment in the country has given rise to a wide spread sentiment amongst the muslims, both in Kashmir as well as in rest of the country and including amongst those who were considered to be Pro India, that in 1947, they should have gone with Jinnah. This disengagement of Muslims can cost the society dearly in times of crisis. Omar Abdullah’s statement aptly describes this sentiment –“Present day India is not the country that Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) had acceded to, the decision "would have been something else" if people had known that the Muslim community's religious rights will not be protected in this country”. Pakistan can exploit these sentiments to its advantage and spread terrrorism in this Rajauri-Poonch area , where it had failed earlier (even at the peak of militancy in Valley).

Six. In such an environment, the Govt might be finding itself in a dilemma; whether to hold elections in Kashmir or not, Because, if the Muftis and the Abdullahs emerge as a power then it will make Central Govt’s task all the more difficult, both within and outside. More so, if there is a surge in terror attacks.

Seven. The ISI might have taken a cue from Imran Khan’s speech at UN Gen assembly a year ago wherein, Imran Khan called Indian Govt as Fascist and hence the ISI named the off shoot of JEM as People’s Anti-Fascist Front (PAFF). This is the same group which has claimed the responsibility for the ambush on the army vehicle. This also gives us an indication about the likely strategy of Pakistan’s ISI and the Pak Govt in near future.

Eight. The Govt today can not take the actions that it took Post Uri and Pulwama incident. It is unlikely that Indian Govt will carry out a surgical strike or an air strike against Pakistan now. This would further embolden Pakistan establishment and mentors of terrorists. The Indian Govt has already come to realisation that more the Pakistan is drawn towards a failed state , the more irresponsible it may become, so they are fooling around the masses that Pakistan may break and POK may join India, on the grounds that India is likely to be more economically prosperous.

Lastly, When we look at all these non-military dimensions in their entirety, including the fact that Indian Government is now increasingly becoming infamous for its Hindutva agenda, for stifling democracy, suppressing freedom of expression, targeting minorities particularly Muslims by its right wing supporters, the rising clamour for Khalistan ; both in India and abroad , there is hence a strong probability that the cumulative impact of all this may have serious repercussions on country’s security.

Conclusion.

Although the muscle power got us some success and it appeared to be serving the National interest initially but geo-political situation can never be static and therefore, it is imperative, we take a holistic and a dispassionate view of all that is happening in the country.

If we do not take corrective steps now particularly on Non-Military dimensions and alter the course, sooner or later, we may find ourselves entangled in a trap of our own making. And one such indicator is right in front of us;

This time, after the recent ambush, in which five Indian soldiers got burnt in the truck and their weapons taken away by terrorists, the Govt could only express its anguish for the terror victims and it is unlikely that it may resort to aggression which it did after the Uri and Pulwama attack. This would only embolden the perpetrators to plan for something big soon.

With Nations increasingly pursuing the foreign policy that serves their national interest, if these non-military dimensions are not taken care of, we may perhaps find ourselves in such Catch 22 situations as we find ourselves now; whether to strike or not.