The recent Lok Sabha membership suspension of Mr Rahul Gandhi drew sharp reactions from various cross sections of the society but the desired impact will probably not materialize in the near foreseeable future. Mr. Modi’s opponents can hold protests for days alleging coercion, authoritarian rule, polarisation and majoritism but this is not likely to make a difference to the masses. That is because Mr. Modi is not only a captivating politician who has mesmerised the Indian masses but is a product of underlying socio-political and economic currents.

Since 2014, eight years back, when Mr. Modi came to power, nothing has adversely impacted his popularity, like - lynching of Muslims by cow protection gangs (his supporters), loss of jobs due to demonetisation, the misery caused to millions due to sudden national lockdown in 2020, the deaths of millions due to shortage of oxygen during the second wave of COVID-19 in April-May 2021, high unemployment rate especially amongst the youth, persistently high inflation, clamour for Hindu Rashtra, resulting demand for Khalistan, reported corruption in Swacch Bharat Abhiyaan and Smart City project, the failure of all high-profile initiatives RERA, Ayushman Bharat and Ujwala, the high handed measures against critics especially media houses, journalists, academicians and think tanks and corruption in the Adani business group. Rather each act of mis-governance and hasty decision-making has been strongly justified by his supporters, who have answers for all the questions. But the answers are increasingly making no sense and are leaving many rational Indians shaking their heads in disbelief.

Take for instance this recent conversation with my colleague, a Mr Modi supporter. Recently, around a hundred delegates from G20 member countries had participated in a three-day meet held at Indore. A week before the summit large life-size cut outs of Mr. Modi and the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh were placed all over Indore and all local radio channels advertised the importance of meeting almost every 10-15 minutes, in Hindi. It had left me wondering as to why local radio channels are advertising this meet.

When I discussed this issue with this colleague, he remarked, “it is the need of the hour, Modiji is doing all this to get FDI.”

So I asked, “don’t you think in that case these advertisements must be done in the country from where these dignitaries are coming.”

Prompt came his reply, “they are coming to Indore, that’s why the Government has to advertise in local channels.”

“Do they listen to these Hindi radio channels?” I asked him innocently.

“Modiji will make sure that they listen. Modiji is very smart. He is a Gujjrati, you know Gujjratis have great business sense.”

I shook my head in disbelief.

To understand Mr. Modi and his supporters one needs to examine the context and the underlying currents which contributed to his rise and power.

During the 1970s, the Indian society was simmering with discontentment due to the socio-economic and political realities – food shortages, pervasive corruption, limited economic opportunities and extreme poverty. The Hindi cinema directors used that discontentment and dormant rage to project Mr. Bachchan in anti-establishment and rebellious roles, dubbed as the "angry young man". It would not be wrong to state here that what Mr Bachchan represented in the 1970s in the Hindi cinema, Mr. Modi represented a similar dormant rage, anger, frustration, and rebellion existing in 2013-14 due to terrorism, scams, corruption, mis-governance, unemployment and policy paralysis. Mr. Modi’s supporters are not expecting him to follow righteous means to achieve the desired goals. Like, Amitabh Bachchan in those Bollywood movies of 1970s, Mr. Modi is also expected to take on the system head-on and deliver by hook or by crook.

This rage and frustration prevalent in the society was skilfully used by Mr. Modi through technology i.e., television and social media, to go national and project himself from a state chief minister to the prime minister of India who could take on the mighty and powerful. He was projected as the Angry Man from a humble background who fought inequality and lived in poverty. Therefore, technology played and is still playing the role of a force multiplier in making Mr. Modi the Amitabh Bachchan of Indian Political arena.

Therefore, Mr. Modi’s rise is a bottom-up phenomenon – he is not the one who has been parachuted from top, but he has worked his way up. Thus, Mr. Modi’s supporters are motivated by a complex mix of emotions. There is ambition and aspirations but there is also a degree of resentment, anger and frustration against the system. They have placed a lot at stake (emotionally) in support of this leader.

Mr. Modi takes on many identities. For hard core Hindus – he is the Hindu samrat who will get them Akhand Bharat (one India). For moderate Hindus – he is the reformer, hard task master and an able administrator.

In this context, it’s essential to see where this would take him as a leader and along with him where it takes us, the Indian society. Will he be seen by the future generations as the modern reformer, one who gave the country modern institutions, like Mr. Nehru gave namely, ISRO, IITs, IIMs, heavy engineering and steel manufacturing companies, atomic research institutions, metallurgy labs and a constitution to run and sustain the country. Or will Mr. Modi be remembered as an authoritarian who despite building roads, railways and ports drove the society towards obscurantism, orthodoxy, conservatism and destruction.

There is no certain way to predict the future but we can draw inferences by looking at some recent events and indicators:

        1.The anti-Muslims tirade carried out by the right-wing groups, who are staunch supporters of Mr. Modi, is likely to create intense discord and disharmony in the society. If 20 million Muslims are made to feel that this country is not theirs then this does not bode well for the country’s future. This disengagement of Muslims can cost the society dearly in times of crisis. Omar Abdullah’s statement underscores this point –“Present day India is not the country that Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) had acceded to, the decision "would have been something else" if people had known that the Muslim community's religious rights will not be protected in this country”.

2. The groups which were once fringe elements – Bajrang Dal, VHP, Sri Ram Sena, Hind Rakshak Sena etc. – are increasingly becoming part of the main stream and public institutions are caving in to their dictats. These groups are the Hindu Taliban. This will no doubt lead to hooliganism, hatred in the society and clamour for Hindu Rashtra which in turn may encourage separatism in the country. After all, Hinduism is not the only religion in this country and is not even practiced the same way across the country. The recent statement by the Akal Takht chief’s is relevant here“Every Sikh should try to keep licensed weapons because the time that is coming, and the circumstances which are going to prevail, demand it,” He further goes on to say, when asked about the action taken by the Govt against Sikh youth under NSA “There are lakhs who demand Hindu rashtra. Those who are calling for Hindu Rashtra should also be booked . They should also be booked under NSA."
3. The Make-in-India initiative has not rejuvenated the Indian manufacturing sector which for the last one decade has been stuck at 15% of GDP and rather slid down to 13% recently. Additionally, the disastrous currency ban in 2016, which wiped out 86% of cash in circulation, and a hasty roll-out of GST, has hit businesses hard, especially the smaller ones. It was because of these reasons, along with a very weak financial sector, that economic growth slowed down much before the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war.
4. The sluggish manufacturing sector and growing unemployment might result in India missing potential gains from the demographic dividend – which comes from increased economic activity due to a high share of working-age population. It were the young job seekers and impatient young voters (aged between 15 and 34) comprising almost 65% of our population, (which would grow to almost 485 million by 2030) which proved to be a game changer for Mr. Modi in the last two elections. However, if India’s manufacturing sector does not grow and produce quality jobs, the same youth can cause turmoil in the society, as it happened when the Agniveer scheme was launched. For India to exploit this demographic dividend, by creating more and quality jobs, its economy would need to grow at a rate more that 7-8%.

5. However, we are heading into rough waters as the new World Bank report notes and the World Bank’s President David Malpass summarized, “the global slowdown in the next two years can result into a lost decade in the making – not just for some countries or regions as it occurred in the past – but for the whole world”. Now when we look at India whose exports and manufacturing is stagnant, per capita income amongst the lowest and a large young population unemployed, our economic woes will create a large force of disgruntled elements.

6. The authoritarianism and majoritism is creating another peculiar situation where important policy bills concerning the welfare of people are being passed without any discussion as there is no opposition. This implies that few people from the ruling junta sit together and decide what is good for the people and announce the scheme. Instead of listening to the dissenting voices and engaging people in nation building, the central government is stifling their voices. It feels that wining elections are increasingly becoming more important than listening to dissenting voices and nation building. Ostensibly, at some point of time this will start hurting the masses and they will protest, like it happened with the farm laws.

Conclusion

The undercurrents of 2024 elections are likely to set the tone of the nation. The degree of polarisation, the violence, and the issues on which these elections will be fought will decide whether the society as a whole, marches forward facing the challenges or it stumbles, with each community at loggerheads with the other.

There is no doubt that Mr. Modi will win, even if his majority is dented a bit, but it is the tone, as I said which will matter. If Mr. Modi, does not re-invent himself like Amitabh Bachchan did after a series of box-office failures, there are chances that the society may further get into a vicious circle of slow growth, frustration, polarisation and violence.

The riots and arson, have already commenced, the institutions have started caving in. The warning bells have already started ringing. Its for the society and the politicians to listen to those, if they don’t, sadly everyone loses. The better brains have already started fleeing abroad.

However, no other political leader has been able to capture the underlying socio-political currents as successfully as Mr. Modi and therefore, there is no credible leader to take on the divisive forces. This has meant that Mr. Modi is yet to suffer a box-office failure and till the time that does not happen he will have no incentive to change.

A month ago the Global Hunger Index was published and India was found languishing at 107^th position out of 121 countries. Obviously in our country , it is the politics that overtakes everything even at homes and instead of discussing this issue of Hunger seriously , we rather politicised it, made it Modi-Rahul debate and trivialised a serious matter like Hunger ,

So, instead of tackling the issue in its right earnest, our media, Govt and its stooges started shooting the messenger , claiming that the methology was wrong, the sample size was wrong, the survey done was faulty etc etc, instead of looking at the malaise within.

Afterall, year after year we have been languishing around this position.

So, instead of getting into this debate of METHODOLOGY and our Position on the Hunger index rather we should focus on FOOD.

First , lets have a look at the data.

In India out of every 1000 kids almost 27 die before reaching the age of 5 years. When we compare this figure with other countries we find that it is pretty high. In France and Germany it is barely 4 whereas in, China etc it is 7.

So following questions arise ;

Why do they die within 5 years of their birth?

Are they weak?

Is their immunity poor?

Do they die because of some disease that had spread in that area ?.

It is an accepted fact that the cause of children dying before their fifth birthday, is because of the fatal mix of inadequate nutrition, unhealthy environments and because their mothers are not getting enough nutrition.

Malnutrition not only makes a child and mother weak but also sick and prone to infection because of poor immunity.

So Why is this mal nutrition?

Why could they not get proper Nutrition?

Why could this issue of mal nutrition not be addressed for decades?

Why have the States not been able to address this issue in last two decades?

Is this not mis governance ?

What a Child needs to be healthy ?

After all, a person barely needs 2000- 2500 calories, approx 60- 90 gms of Protein and 45 gms of Vitamin C per day to remain healthy. A Child needs lesser calories - 1200 to 1500. And that, one can get from very basic ;

1. Breakfast ; One glass of milk, One roti/ paratha in the morning
2. Lunch ; Two- three Rotis, Dal, Sabji and Rice in afternoon and the same at night during Dinner.
3. One Lemon a day.

So the next question arises, are these kids not getting this much also, and our Battery of Govt Officials earning more than a Lac per month, could not arrange this, despite these reports ?

Lets look at the answers as to Why are n’t they getting three meals and a glass of milk?

Besides the misgovernance, I think the answer can be ;

One. Its expensive for their families to afford this much.

Two. Their food habits are such that they are unable to get 2500 calories and desired level of Protein.

But the fact is - No mother would  love to give birth to a Weak child? So, Malnutrition can not be a Choice but is a matter of COMPULSION.

Secondly, How can the data be wrong year after year ?

Hence, this high child mortality rate can not be due to Mother's choice, but is rather a RESULT of their inability to afford Nutritious diet and offcourse MISGOVERNANCE.

The Answer ?.

My Office Boy earns approx Rs 23000/ month, when I asked him about the milk , fruits and eggs intake. He bluntly replied ; he cannot afford a glass of milk every day and can afford fruits/ eggs only once in a month.

Obvioulsy, with Atta touching Rs 35 per kg, vegetables costing almost 70-100 per kg and most of the pulses APPROX Rs 100- Rs 150 per kg, its natural that they must be relying on potatoes and Dal full of water. So, his Family's protein intake is grossly inadequate.

We all know that in India people earning more than 20000/ month fall amongst the top 10% as far as income is concerned , so if my Office boy who still does not have a child to support , earning Rs23000/ month cannot meet his needs of Vitamin C, Minerals and Proteins what would be the plight of 90 percent population.

I leave it for the people now to take a call ;

Why are people malnourished?

If those earning 20k / month cannot afford nutritious diet, What kind of diet those people might be taking who are earning on barely 10k per month.  

Its high time we Consider all those who can not afford minimum 2500 calories of food daily as ; Hungry, because they can not afford One Glass of milk, Enough Rotis, Dal, Rice and vegetables to eat.

It is ridiculous to tell these poor people that - NO, No  , you are not Hungry , you are only Malnourished, particularly, when we know that, they can not afford to buy this Thali ; 

Hundreds of people had joined education reformist Sonam Wangchuk on the final day of his five-day hunger strike held in Ladakh in Jan this year. Sonam Wangchuk is the same Engineer whose life inspired a character; Phunsukh Wangdu in Bollywood block bluster "3 Idiots".

He had alleged that he was asked to sign a bond and has been placed under house arrest and even gone to the extent of calling the current Govt as DICTATOR.

So, in view of the above, its important to understand, what are his demands and why has Govt shied away from responding to his demands.

One. He says “ The government needs to have a futuristic plan for safeguarding the environment of the Himalayas”. He further adds “ Safeguarding the Himalayas, including its glaciers, should be more important than making some "corporators happy" as it is having a direct bearing on the people”.

Two. He wants an extension of the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution to Ladakh because now that protection of article 370 is gone , it is necessary to protect the people and their land under the provision of article 244 from the corporate hawks.

Prima facie, it appears that post article 370, the bonhomie with the ruling Govt at the centre is fast disappearing and locals are now realising that they are now being thrown open to the corporate wolves who want nothing but only the Land where they can set up hotels, resorts, bring in more flights & more tourists, more shopping complexes and so on in the guise of Development.

This is exactly what has happened in eco sensitive Uttarakhand where in the name of development its environment is brought to a point of no return.

So, there is some truth in what Mr Sonam Wangchuk said ; The Union Territory's administration wants to silence him as he protests against destruction of the region's ecology and unsustainable development.

It would also be grossly wrong to look at his demands from the prism of religion and create a rift between Muslims of Kargil and Buddhists because the natural calamity does not discriminate.

We have seen this happening with all environmentalists and still not woken up, despite so many calamities that have taken place in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh due to unsustainable development. 

Very few might be knowing about Mr Sonam’s protest nor would they be any interested about the Ladakhis till the Land of Ladakh is with India. That’s the major problem, we always tend to think of Land and not the people who live there, may be the attitude is ; ZAMIN AAGAYI LOGON KA KYA HAI, THOK PEET KEY AA JEYENGEY.

A State that crushes the voice of its people and displays scant respect for their concerns does not prosper, yes China, the Dragon empire is surely an example that may inspire some but India has never been like the Dragon empire and so it should avoid imitating China while dealing with people.

It is therefore high time that Govt rethinks about this mad development in eco sensitive regions of India and learn a few lessons from its neighbour Bhutan as to how Tourism can be regulated.

Mr Rishi Sunak on Tuesday scripted history when he was appointed by King Charles III as Britain's first Indian-origin Prime Minister after being elected unopposed .

However, British minister Mr Alok Sharma, a minister of Indian Origin lost his position in the cabinet in a reshuffle by new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

  I am as proud and delighted, as I was when Dr Amartya Sen and Dr S Chandrashekhar won the Nobel, when Ms Indra Nooyi and Mr Sunder Pichai became the CEOs of  Multinational Companies. There are many others who attained similar accomplishments and their achievements always gave me delight and offcourse a message. 

To understand that message we need to read the following between the lines and grasp the quintessential elements.

The First Interview 

In his first interview after becoming the PM of UK , Mr Rishi said ;

“ Right now OUR country is facing profound economic crisis.

He would confront the "profound economic crisis” with compassion and lead a government of “integrity, professionalism and accountability at all levels.”

He also lauded former UK PM Liz Truss, paying tribute to her he said ;

“ SHE MEANT GROWTH FOR THE COUNTRY AND AS A RESULT WAS A LITTLE RESTLESS TO GET THINGS MOVING AND MADE MISTAKES”.

He vowed to earn the trust saying, "Trust is earned and i will earn yours”.

Read his speech carefully and we would realise following ;

1. He said ; OUR COUNTRY i.e UK so, he is a Patriotic Britisher. Patriotism does not come by Birth and which God one worships and how one worships as many in India these days are prophessing. Patriotism is nurtured.  

2. He talked of Earning the Trust, which is an alien value here. Here what matters is Power, deceit, treachery and to understand that - 

Please go through the events that took place before Mr Rishi was selected by the Conservatives as their  PM  ;

Truss had to resign just 44 days after becoming PM, Boris Johnson resigned after serving for approx 3 years, Theresa May had resigned as PM and before that David Cameron had resigned because of the Loss in BREXIT refrendum. They were all from One Political Party.

No one had to huddle their Ministers in AC Coaches and Chartered planes to some remote place / hotel and keep ministers as hostages to remain in power. When their Ministers felt uneasy , they left their Leader and the PM bowed down. 

So, things are different there . Rise of Mr Rishi Sunak in a Conservative Party is like the rise of a Muslim or a Christian leader in BJP. Although, it was not like this in UK always. 

Meghnad Desai a renowned Indian economist settled in UK, therefore, very rightly said ;

" Indian commentators are all talking of an Indian running the UK and hoping that the free trade agreement will now be an easy walkover. Steady on, I would advise. The UK needs its new prime minister to look after itself. It is a matter of pride that a person with ancestral roots in India is now the prime minister of the UK . But he will be no more Indian than Barak Obama was Kenyan".