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In the last article titled ; " India’s difficult neighbourhood "( https://www.bharatamrising.com/india-s-difficult-neighourhood )the looming economic crisis in Srilanka was discussed. The following was highlighted ; .

“With the COVID-19 pandemic, the situation in Srilanka worsened, largely due to the significant loss of tourism earning, taken together; diminishing foreign exchange reserves, the debts, the circumstances have put Sri Lanka in a vulnerable position. The bggest worry was that Sri Lanka cannot address its problems as merely a domestic political issue. Tackling Sri Lanka’s external sector vulnerabilities, including the shortage of foreign currency, will require support from external parties, whether China, India, the United States, or even international organizations such as the IMF or World Bank. Thus far, Sri Lanka has excessively relied on China to tackle its external sector vulnerabilities while economic relations with India seem to remain stagnant. At the same time, Sri Lanka tries not to irritate India. Against this backdrop, Sri Lanka is now struggling hard to balance between China, India, and domestic nationalists, all the while trying to save the country from a potential economic crisis. Thus far, it does not look easy”.

The Economic Crisis led to Declaration of Emergency

Barely two months have passed since we wrote this and the Govt of Srilanka has now declared an emergency. Sri Lanka’s Parliament on Monday (September 6) approved a national emergency. The government said the emergency was required to check soaring prices of food and hoarding of essentials by a “food mafia”. As expected the Opposition called this action to be taken “in bad faith, with an ulterior motive of stifling the fundamental rights of the people and a move towards authoritarianism.

In Parliament, Opposition members argued that there was no need for an emergency, as other legislation were available to check hoarding and cap food prices.

The Vicious Circle.

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Can India Trust Taliban is not the right question rather Why should India trust Taliban should be the question that needs to be answered.

Because, when last time they were in power India had a tumultuous year full of violence.

What have the Taliban done to foster that belief?

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Appears that Indian External Affairs Ministry and the Military are working in Silos

This is not the first time that the External Affairs Ministry of the Govt of India did not bother to take the opinion of the military or if it all it took the view, it did not care for it and the Nation has to pay a heavy price for it.

One instance was way back in 90s when the Govt of India eager to have peace at its borders signed an Agreement with China. The 1993 agreement, that created the LAC(Line of Actual Control), signed by the two countries to maintain peace and tranquillity did not define where the line lies. As a result China in last few years has moved the LAC as India understood it after 1993 to well inside Indian territory. This ranges from 1.5km in some places to 4.5km in others. And as it has been happening since last 50 years, China has offered a legal argument to justify its new positions on the ground. It says ; The Line was not defined.

And why did it happen because the then external affairs ministry did not pay heed to the army advise which was insisting that the Line must be called as Line of Existing Control so that the positions could be frozen and there is no change hereafter. But the external affairs ministry wizards did not pay heed.

Once again it has happened , on the issue of Taliban.

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In 1949, after Chinese took over Tibet and thereafter started claiming more land inside Indian territory the then Indian Govt thought that by waiting and watching and through diplomatic means they will be able to resolve the problem. But it did not happen in that way and finally India suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of Chinese in 1962. It took 13 years for that to happen. We are once again waiting and watching the events in Afghanistan.

Our dealings with Pakistan have also been along similar lines. We waited for Pakistan to reciprocate our Good will gestures  - signed Indus water sharing treaty, signed Tashkent agreement and returned all captured territory including Hajipir Pass, let them off the hook again by signing Simla agreement and returned PWs, Went dancing to Lahore with a troupe in 1999 and did not go beyond LC and capture important features during Kargil war to guarantee safety of the Leh Highway for ever.

I think we have behaved worse than Prithviraj Chauhan.

Despite all these good will gestures Pakistan relentlessly pursued with devotion - a policy of bleeding and dismembering India. Pakistan is a small country vis a vis India and so India could deploy all the resources at its disposal against Pakistan and defeat them. How long the God can be kind to Indians ?

However the situation has now changed.

One. Pakistan now has a trained force of thousands of battle hardened Jehadis led by Taliban who can cause heavy damage. They may not be good at conventional warfare but their ability to wage guerilla warfare cannot be undermined.

Secondly. No one is interested in Nation Building. Pakistan is not interested in creating a Nation state in Afghanistan, it is interested in having a safe backyard which will provide it a Strategic depth and an armed militant force which can tire India and get them Kashmir.

Third. Back to Square One. After fighting terrorism for more than three decades India is once again back to square one. Because USA and Pakistan are now hell bent to prove that Taliban is not a terror group but a Political party of locals , sons of soil who just want to establish Islamic rule.

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