The sanctions imposed on Russia as an aftermath of invasion on Ukraine and India’s stand on the issue has put USA in a dilemma.

Ostensibly this cannot be hidden from US law makers and its security experts that the sanctions imposed on Russia and its weapon manufacturing companies will have an adverse impact on India’s defense capabilities as almost 50% of India's def hardware is imported from Russia and there are numerous other Joint ventures related to defense equipment which will be severely impacted.

The US decision makers would have also appreciated that sanctions on Russia will seriously imperil India’s operational efficiency which faces military threat from a much stronger enemy China with whom India had a bloody skirmish just a year ago at Galwan.

In addition to above they must also be conscious of the fact that over last two decades India has emerged as an undeclared Frontline state of US against its long term enemy China and is also an important member of Quad which is an important Anti China alliance.

The fact that USA did not impose any sanctions under CAATSA (COUNTERING AMERICA’S ADVERSARIES THROUGH SANCTIONS ACT) on India after it deployed S400 Air Def system imported from Russia whereas it did so against China and also against Turkey is a testimony that US treats India differently and it is quite possible that it may turn a Nelson’s eye towards India again on fulfilling its crucial military needs from Russia.

Biden , the US President must appreciate that a stronger India will be to its advanatge and if India needs US assistance, US can not undermine the fact that it also needs India on its side to deal with China in Indo - Pacific Region. 

But I think the above may only be possible if the war ends at the earliest and it does not lead to unprecedented levels of destruction and loss of civilian lives.

Now that India has avoided going against Russia publicly and abstained from voting in UN Security council on the proposal brought by US, its implications will surely be felt on many aspects. However, what would be the intensity of those will only depend on How things unfold in due course of time.

Notwithstanding the above, the following may feel the heat ;

1. Fissures in Quad. When other members of quad ; Japan, USA and Australia have unequivocally criticized Russia’s invasion, India is the only member which has avoided doing this. It must be noted that USA , Japan, Australia have already signed bilateral security agreements leaving India aside. India has also kept itself away from the sanctions imposed on Russia. So, this leaves India alone to face belligerent China both in Indian Ocean and on its land borders. India might be having its own reasons for not criticisng Russia but there is all likelihood that this may result in a rift in Quad. However, things would become clear once the next round of Quad meeting takes. Moreover, we must also need to remember that the members of Quad also need India as much as India needs Quad. 
2. Strategic Relationship with USA. The successive Govts right from the time India conducted nuclear tests nurtured a strategic relationship with US which in recent years brought the two largest democracies closer whose relations traditionally have remained estranged. USA was fast emerging as one of the major suppliers of sophisticated weapons but if this war prolongs and India remains firm with the same stance, it is quite likely that the relations may nose dive.
3. No one can miss a point why Putin called up Mr Modi just a few hours after meeting Pakistan’s PM who was on a Two day Tour to Russia. In recent times Russia and Pakistan are cosing up and Russia has declared that it does not have any inhibitions in supplying weapon systems to Pakistan. They have also signed a few bilateral agreements regarding developing an Oil pipeline. So, Putin has perhaps given clear indication.
4. India’s Make in India Programme may suffer a setback as it cannot become a success unless India has access to better technology. Can China and Russia provide that ?.
5. The sanctions imposed on Russia will have a severe impact on India’s economy, as well. Oil prices can shake up many aspects of our economy.
6. Russia accounts for almost 49% of our arms imports, although it has dropped significantly but over the years this has evolved into joint research , development and production. Thus there are many joint ventures that are underway ; development of stealth frigate, joint production of light utility helicopters, leasing of nuclear submarine, provisioning of 20000 assualt rifles etc , in view of wide array of sanctions imposed by USA , many of these may suffer setback.

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 India in last 70 years during many international conflicts not only stuck to strategic autonomy but it also stood for values without taking sides.

It did not make nuclear weapons despite being capable of it and despite its neighbors going nuclear because it felt nuclear weapons were dangerous for humanity. It firmly stood for nuclear disarmament. Finally when pushed to a corner by the powers it turned nuclear, but the powers never reacted to in the manner they reacted to Iran and Iraq. Because they felt that India is a responsible power and it stood for Values all these years.

It stood firmly against Apartheid and boycotted South Africa for many decades and also stood for Palestinians state hood. It went in for a war when Pakistani army was causing atrocities on innocent civilians of East Pakistan, dropped food for Srilankan Tamils who were fighting for Sri lankans fighting for their democratic rights in NE Region of Srilanka.

Times When Values were Compromised ;

Once when Chinese captured Tibet and it suffered.

And second time was when USSR, in 1979 moved its powerful army into Afghanistan, it could capture the land but could not subjugate its people. India once again stood with USSR.

The end result was USSR got disintegrated and India suffered immensely because of the rise in fundamentalism in the subcontinent. 

One is free to derive lessons from it.

Ukraine Crisis provides Opportunity To Take a Moral Stand.

Once again Ukrainian crisis has divided the world into two groups ; one with Russia and the other with Ukraine.

The longer the war continues the difficult it will become for Russia and it will then surely unleash all its military power to save itself from embarrassment. This will cause more destruction and more deaths of civilians.

Russia's powerful army may capture whole of Ukraine, like it captured Afghanistan but can it govern without the local support. ; like it happened in Afghanistan it may happen again , Russia may get a real boot on its back side by the people and this time Putin may be ousted as a disgraced leader and its people may suffer immense miseries due to the economic sanctions.

If India at that point of time changes its stance, it would be too late and too little.

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The World Bank has recently acknowledged that South Asia is one of the least integrated regions in the world in terms of trade and people-to-people contact. It further says that ; “Putting aside traditional concerns and taking joint action can develop cross-border solutions to shared issues, strengthen regional institutions, improve infrastructure and connectivity, and advance trade policy. Regional cooperation has the potential to produce significant gains across all countries of South Asia. Intraregional trade now stands at just one-third of its potential with an estimated gap of $23 billion annually. An electricity market of the BBIN countries -- Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Nepal --  would save an estimated $17 billion in capital costs. And improvements in transport and logistics can reduce the 50 percent higher cost for container shipments in South Asia compared to OECD nations”.

The SAARC also could not achieve much and proved to be ineffective because of the bickering amongst the member nations. The India-Pakistan rivalry, the border disputes with Bangladesh and lack of trust between India and Srilanka has largely made this ineffective and irrelevant now.

And surprisingly, these smaller nations instead of trusting democratic India and trying to resolve differences through bilateral negotiations, they started looking elsewhere to corner India and thus increasingly preferred to have more faith on a communist expansionist China. As a result , today some of them are not only bankrupt but have become vassals of China.

So, gradually all Roads from these nations are leading towards China. Pakistan is looking towards China and towards West for its energy and security requirements. Recently, Pakistan’s energy minister announced that negotiations are underway with Russia to build a gas pipeline from Kazakhstan to Pakistan. Last year, Pakistan   finalised  a railway development agreement with Afghanistan and Uzbekistan. Bangladesh and Srilanka have already leased out a port to China, Myanmar and Nepal and Pakistan are now having a black top metalled road connected to China. . Although, CPEC lost momentum last year due to security and financing concerns, but it still nremains a HIGH priority for Islamabad, which hopes to expand CPEC to Kabul.

As a result, India also started looking towards its East and formed BIMSTEC.

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