The current Srilankan Govt is known to have a soft corner for China and China has immensely benefited from them. However, now that Srilanka is in deep economic turmoil ; some due to its own creation and some can be attributed to Covid, it is now doing a balancing act and empathising with Indian security concerns. How long will the empathy remains is to be seen Ultimately like in domestic politics even in International politics WHAT PAYS IS YOUR NUISANCE VALUE. 

for more reading https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/india-plans-power-project-sri-lanka-chinas-shelved-83734800

Also read ; https://www.bharatamrising.com/india-s-security-concerns-challenges-3/the-srilankan-crisis-will-it-help-chinese-to-further-entrench-themselves

The Ukraine war has reached the 28^th day and there is no sign , that it may end any time soon.

This war must have jolted many Indian defense experts serving as well as retired who have been for many years saying that under the current geo political environment there cannot be any Conventional war and even if it happens, it is going to be SHORT.

Now that the Ukraine war has broken this mind set, it would be good if Indian Top Brass looks at this reality of a prolonged CONVENTIONAL war a little more seriously.

The following at the cost of reiterating must be kept in mind ;

One. At no stage we must forget that We Have Two inimical powers as Neighbours To Deal With. The Indian military must be prepared to fight a two front Conventional war. 

Two. We must keep in mind that Nations undergo turmoil and then bounce back. So, Pakistan also is not likely to remain weak forever and we may in future have to face a resurgent Pakistan. A strong Pakistan will always be dangerous for India.

Three. The current geo – political situation emboldens rogue nations to take recourse to war , like Russia under the autocratic rule of Putin has done. Both Pakistan and China have Govts which are rogue and autocratic in nature.

Read more ...

The unannounced visit of Chinese foreign minister to India for two days is seen by many that China is now keen to have normal ties with India, because this is the first visit by a high level Chinese Government official after the relations had strained due to China’s intrusion in Ladakh.

However, in my opinion this visit was not for that purpose, as the final outcome of the visit has shown ; Both have agreed to disagree on the LAC issue as India wants peace on the borders whereas China is once again insisting on long term perspective.

You cannot expect Chinese to be so naïve, not to understand the Govt’s mood particularly after what their Foreign Minsiter did in Pakistan at the OIC meet.

Wang after issuing a controversial remark on Kashmir at the OIC meet in Pakistan , went to Afghanistan and after the India visit he has gone to Nepal and has inked many agreements related to development projects with the Nepal Govt.

All this is an indicator of following ;

One. They are trying to bracket us with other South Asian nations as USA used to bracket India with Pakistan till a few years ago. Every US Govt official who came on a visit to India paid a visit to Pakistan also or vice versa. So, in that sense India is fast losing its status in South Asia. For China we are like any other South Asian country.

Two. Supporting Pakistan on the issue of Kashmir and speaking about it loud and clear during the meet is an indicator that China does not care whether you like it or not. Wang, China’s Foreign Minister came here on a visit within a few days of issuing a statement on Kashmir, wherein he supported Pakistan’s views, vindicates my view point; They do not care for our concerns and also have the cheek to come and talk to us. 

Now what should we be doing ?

Firstly, How does it matter if someone wants to bracket us with Pakistan.

But can the peace come because we wish for PEACE - Close our eyes and chant OM SHANTI or we need to build conditions that can bring peace on our borders. The more we look inwards, the more we will be hemmed in from all sides.

Peace does not happen automatically one has to strive hard to build peace. Hence if China wishes to bracket us with Pakistan or treats us like anyother South Asian Country then we must create conditions that it gives the importance we Indians deserve. 

The great German statesman Bismarck had aptly remarked, “Only a fool learns from his own mistakes. The wise learns from the mistakes of others.” 

So in that sense, General Naravane has rightly commented;

We should be ready for a Conventional war and learn lessons from the Ukraine war.

However, we can only be ready and prepare ourselves provided we derive Right lessons from this ongoing Russia – Ukraine war and execute them EARNESTLY.

At no stage we Indians must forget that We Have Two Rogue Nations as Neighbours To Deal With. Though war is the last option adopted by Nations after all other measures have failed to achieve the Foreign policy objective but it still remains a potent option for a rogue state/ ruler and this fact must never be lost sight of, that we have two such Rogue states adjoining us. The Indian military therefore must be prepared to fight a two front war and also keep in mind that Pakistan is not likely to remain weak forever and we may in future have to face a resurgent Pakistan. If we undermine these lessons as enumerated below , we may find oursleves in a tight spot.

One. The War Has Finally Changed the Mindset. This war thankfully has changed the mindset of many security experts serving and retired who have been writing and speaking that the current geo political situation does not allow a conventional war to take place. Last year also we were on the verge of a conventional war with China, but as it ended in disengagement through negotiations, this further lent to this mindset.

The Invasion by Russia has brought back the reality of conventional war. The military commanders are aware as to how this mindset has impacted the training and planning aspects over the years and they must address those at the earliest.

Two. You are alone. UNO, USA and no other country or Alliance will help you out when you are attacked. Yes, they may provide you weapon systems and financial help and also impose sanctions on the invader but that also depends on many factors. For instance, if China attacks India, China may not face the same kind of stringent sanctions as Russia is facing now. So, if the invader has done his homework well and insulated his economy from initial shock, the current geo – political situation emboldens rogue nations to take such steps as has been taken by Russia. 

Three.

Read more ...