Till as late as 2019 , whenever a terror strike took place in India, the discussions on media used to be very predictable. Pakistani retired Generals  used to warn India of severe repercussions and boasted that in case they are pushed , they will not mind using their nuclear weapons. As a result, Many Indians also used to caution their fellow countrymen saying that - Pakistan is a rogue and irresponsible nation, if pushed to a wall, it may use nuclear weapons against India .

As a result we did nothing for almost 20 years.

Then came Mr Modi, with a rallying cry ; MODI HAI TO MUMKIN HAI. Two strikes against Pakistan one using land force and the other from air , he not only surprised the Pakis but also exposed their BLUFF.

Thereafter, the Pakis never boasted of their nuclear weapons and no arm chair military strategist warned us of Pakistan being irresponsible or crazy or mad.

All of a sudden Pakistan started behaving responsibly.

Perhaps because we had proved to them that we Indians can also become irrational, irresponsible and crazier than them.

This served our purpose as the external enemy now could not take us for granted, as we could do anything.

Putin is also using the same strategy of projecting himself as irrational and in my opinion the world could not catch on and in the bargain he has done so much of damage Not only to Ukraine but also the economies of many other nations.

Theory of Madman.

The madman theory is a political theory that  has been commonly associated with Mr Nixon, the US President, when he and hhisadministarion tried to make the leaders of hostile Communist block nations think he was irrational and volatile and could do anything, thus forcing those leaders to avoid provoking the United States, fearing an unpredictable American response.

Nixon utilized the madman strategy in his first term in the Oval Office to solve the problem of the Vietnam War. His aim was to appear to be irrational and unstable, so as to convince Russia that he was moments away from pulling the trigger that would lead to an all-out Nuclear War. If his tactic succeeded, Nixon hoped that Russia would pressure the Vietnamese to capitulating.

Let me explain with an example;

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So as expected Pakistan has lived up to its reputation of NOT ALLOWING any PM ever since its independence to complete one full tenure.

The two nations ;India and Pakistan started their journey together but look where is one left today and where the other has reached.

Both of us had similar problems but thanks to our founding fathers who ensured that India does not go back into the abyss from where it emerged after 800 years of slavery.

Imran Khan since coming to power in 2018 had towed a hard line view on USA and on the eve of Taliban capturing Afghanistan declared them as Freedom Fighters. So, it won’t be surprising that the Pak army which wanted to keep the relations with US going even after its withdrawal from Afghanistan, would not have been very happy with all this.

Imran Khan just a day prior to the vote of confidence had given a hint of it. He said that the establishment has given him few choices ; Resign, dissolve the assembly and hold elections. We all understand what establishment in Pakistan implies.

USA has apparently adopted a hands off policy regarding Pakistan and despite all the hulla gulla , Biden did not bother to call Imran even once since his taking over as US President.

Notwithstanding the above, Although the recent events post Taliban take over and India emerging an unofficial frontline state for USA in this region to checkmate China, might give this feeling that Pakistan has lost its strategic importance.

But, it should never be construed that USA has no interest left in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Although, it claims that what Pakistan could do in Afghanistan is now being achieved through Quatar, but Pakistan’s strategic importance as a nuclear weapon state, a neighbor of China and its influence in Afghanistan and thereafter its reach to Central Asian republics and Iran can never be undermined. It is also an important member of OIC.

In view of the above, Imran Khan’s going, may rather be in the interest of USA as the next PM likely to be Nawaz Sharif’s brother Shehbaz Sharif may be more receptive to US interests in the region.

This old bonhomie between USA and Pakistan that existed a decade ago may not be possible anymore. However, even normalization of relations will benefit Pakistan as it may help him to wriggle out of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) dragnet and also mitigating its economic problems.

Gen Bajwa, the Pak army Chief, in his recent statement gave a hint, when he said ; Pakistan wants good relations with US but not at the cost of others. This clearly indicates that Pakistan has learnt its lessons well and hence it will now avoid placing all the apples in one basket.

But has it learnt to avoid taking a confrontational approach with India and wind up terrorist infrastructure; only time will tell.

Notwithstanding the above, one can never take away this uncanny ability of Pakistan establishment to exploit the geo-political situation to its advantage and be able to run with the hare and hunt with the hound.

Imran Khan in his address to the nation had almost blurted out that US was behind his sacking. Although it was undiplomatic and immature on his part to name USA but the fact remains that the kind of stance he had taken post Taliban victory in Afghanistan and addressed them as liberators and freedom fighters , it was expected from USA,

Once the US was out of Afghanistan , the Pak army realized the importance of US on its sides and so wanted to retain the old relationship as the two have operated together for many many years, but it was surely not possible till Imran was on chair.

So, the moment Imran Khan was out, the US is back in business.

 Ilhan Omar, a Somali-American who belongs to President Joe Biden's Democratic Party, recently after her visit to PoK said "Kashmir should get more attention from the United States"

After Landing in POK, Ms Omar said at a press conference that the US administration and the Congress is not talking as much as needed about human rights violations in Jammu & Kashmir and the effects of the Modi administration’s anti-Muslim rhetoric. Omar assured after meeting PoK President Sultan Mahmood Chaudhry.

Ms Omar further assured after meeting PoK President that “The condemnations and concerns of those who fight for human rights and the question of Kashmir will be included in future hearings within the USA.’’

This was the first US delegation to PoK in three years. “ US Congresswoman Ilhan Omar “, says the Tribune ; “ Emphasised on Wednesday that the US valued its ties with Pakistan as both countries were partners in progress since last seven decades, and assured the Pakistani top leadership that Washington would continue to support Islamabad in various fields.

Obviously Indian Govt was quick to condemn her remarks.

Although Biden has out rightly rejected the idea that there is any change in US policies vis a vis India and stated that she was on her personal visit and hers opinion is not an official stance. The moot fact is ; She was leading a delegation of US legislatures, how can her views be taken lightly.

Notwithstanding the above, few things that clearly stand out , whether it was a planned visit or a coincidence particularly after the stand India has taken on the issue of Russia-Ukraine war ;

One. Kashmir is not likely to fade away from the discussions at international forums . Besides Pakistan , China and from time to time US and other Islamic countries will also keep raking up this issue to brow beat India.

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After the Deputy National Security Adviser for International Economics of the Biden administration, Daleep Singh, threatened India with ‘consequences’ for purchasing oil from Russia and setting up an alternate payment mechanism to circumvent US sanctions, it was expected that the tempers would run high.

So, not surprised when few supporters of the current Indian Govt ; The Hindu Sena went over board and defaced the US embassy name plate.

In the previous article; India tying itself in knots, I had just said the same. If the war continues for longer, India, given the stand it has taken, will find itself in a precarious situation. https://www.bharatamrising.com/india-s-security-concerns-challenges-3/ukraine-crisis-india-tying-itself-in-knots

Although many Foreign ministers of Quad countries and other nations including Russia and China have come and gone but India’s stand has remained unchanged and instead of towing the US line, it has increased its imports of Russian oil.

So, once again its time to ask following questions;

What kind of support would we expect from rest of the world incase a few years from now we face threat from China. Remember China threat has not gone.

On what grounds would we be appealing to the world community then?

What would happen in case in future China and resurgent Pakistan demand execution of UN resolution on Kashmir or jointly carry out a military operation against India?.

On what grounds would we be appealing to the world community then?

Will a poor and pauper Russia be in a position to extend help to India against China?

Do we realize how many border related problems we have with our neighbors.

How do we expect a rule based Indian Ocean region when we ourselves do not support such regimes elsewhere.

All these questions will have to be answered some day and we may find it difficult then to get international support particularly when we have border related disputes with almost all our neighbours ; Kashmir is still one of the most contentious issues lying pending.

These are the questions that are related to Values as well as our Security.

Unfortunately now, it appears that the Supporters of the Govt are dictating the foreign policy of India. It is Russia and Ukraine that are fighting, but far away in India we also stand divided; there are die hard Putin supporters as well as Detractors who feel he is a cruel DICTATOR.

Initially when the conflict started and India abstained itself from UN Voting the action taken by the Govt had to be justified by the party in power. and so A narrative was created that projected Ukraine and USA as villains and Putin as helpless.

The IT Cells of the Govt have done a good job on social media ; they made the Indians to believe that Ukraine is responsible for this war as it wanted to join NATO and Russia had no choice but to fight. Little realizing that in future if China does the same to us on the issue of Quad as Russians have done to Ukraine on the issue of NATO, what would be our stand then. They also fabricated stories like Ukraine voted against India in UN Security Council on the issue of Nuclear tests and on Kashmir.

Hence, the general perception in India is that Russia is a true friend of India and USA, a power seeker that has never helped India. The examples quoted are ;

One. During 1971 when USA tried coercing India by sending its 7^th fleet in Bay of Bengal.

Two. US continued supplying sophisticated war machinery to Pakistan which Pakistan repeatedly used against India in wars . 1965 is a sure example of that.

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