It was in 2013 that a 21 day standoff between India and China in the Daulat Beg Oldie sector(DOB) in eastern Ladakh took place, thereafter the next year, the two sides were locked in another standoff in the Chumar sector of Ladakh, then, in 2017, the two countries were involved in a  tense standoff in the Doklam region , when Chinese troops started constructing a road and then the Ladakh standoff in 2020.

It appears as if Chinese are observing some sort of ritual every 2-3 years.

These standoffs obviously point a finger at the utility of the peace agreement of 1993 and 1996. 

What has changed in last 15 years that China has to resort to all these intrusions.

Is India only responsible to carry the burden of these Agreements ?

If perception of LAC is the major issue of difference then should China not honour India's percpetion.

Why the Intrusions ?

Although, these skirmishes are not new and they have a long history but now the Chinese  come prepared for a long haul. But why now, when peace agreements have been signed barely 15 years ago.

One. Is it part of some change in Chinese foreign policy ? (China has been on the diplomatic offensive against many countries; Australia, Philippines etc).

Second, Are they trying to deflect attention of their people from issues inside the country, which have had an adverse impact on the country’s economy ?.

As regards its aggressive policy in South China Sea, one can easily find a reason, But, why against India, where most of the strategic experts and successive Govts considered them to be just a Competitor instead of an enemy or a rival.

If we place ourselves in their position, we would be easily able to comprehend the reasons ;

One. 80 percent of China's energy imports and 39.5 percent of China's total trade passes through the South China Sea. China is a net importer of oil and all its ports are along South China Sea. The world’s 85% trade takes place through seas and so any country whose economic interest grows beyond its frontiers has to make sure that its sea lanes are protected.

Two. In order to avoid being solely dependent on sea routes and as China is a net importer of oil which comes from West Asia, A secured land route from Pakistan is therefore very important. Hence the link from Gwadar port through POK becomes important for China. so, it must ensure , given the bottle necks it passes through, are adequately guarded.

Three. So, all these smaller nations Like Bangladesh, Mynmmar , Srilanka are important as they provide access to Indian Ocean and Pakistan becomes strategically important for its land route to China.

Four. India is the only country in this region that is big enough in terms of resources and size to challenge China. Hence, These small states around India also become important so that India’s influence beyond its shores is marginalized and it is unable to challenge.

So, now the pattern becomes clearer.

First surround India through a string of ports which provide China access to Indian Ocean, so as to reduce India’s dominance in Indian Ocean. There after , marginalise its influence in this region using its deep pockets by buying the poor neighbours to virtual submission. Three, develop a highway to connect everyone, four finally target India’s soft belly ; its long inhospitable borders and keep it busy guarding them.

In these last 20 years or so, China has systematically executed this plan and it is unlikely that it will loosen its grip now and let India regain its position in South Asia. SARRC is virtually dead now.

It’s a catch 22 situation for India, either it lets China into it and lose its supremacy or let this association die its natural death.

China has achieved its political objective by occupying strategically important places to safeguard its interest and proving its hegemony over India by undermining its regional status and also secured the 1959 claim line, without firing a bullet and without any bloodshed, primarily because we could not foresee this happening.

China therefore does not have any motivation or reason to go for war.

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During the entire course of transition of power in Afghanistan, last month, the two embassies that remained operational were; Chinese and Russian. Pakistan is happy that it has placed a Govt in Kabul whose strings are firmly in its hands. The world may overlook that but for India it means trouble. The ISI has created scores of Jehadi tanzeems (groups) who apparently look to be different but they are all hand in glove and are firmly controlled by ISI. They can be rightly termed as Pakistani deep assets which serve its foreign policy objectives.

China and Pakistan together are likely to fill that vacant space in Afghanistan and also in Central Asia and Russia is also trying to hook on to this congregation.

India is now frantically looking around to salvage the situation as recent developments in Afghanistan impinges on its security. But as a matter of fact it's not only Afghanistan that's a cause of concern but our lackadisical approach towards our security as a whole, which is now troubling us.

Aggressive China a Cause of Concern.

A belligerent China, on the other hand, has now announced new maritime rules in order to control the entry of foreign vessels in what Beijing calls “Chinese territorial waters”. The move is expected to have far-reaching consequences for passage of vessels, both commercial and military, in the disputed South China Sea, East China Sea and Taiwan Strait. It will take effect from 1st September.

Australia and China post covid have got into a trade war wherein China has imposed ban on many items that it imported from Australia.

Srilanka an Indian ocean island has gone into an economic turmoil which is likely to further drive this island nation into Chinese lap.

China is fast catching up as the largest trading partner of Bangladesh and Srilanka replacing India. China is also fast emerging as the major bilateral donor to these countries including Nepal .

China and India are engaged in a tug of war as far as influence in Maldives is concerned which can always shift in favour of China with the change in power in Maldives.

In 2019, Bangladesh gave China access to two of its largest ports—Chittagong and Mongla, China already accounts for around 70% of arms imports between 2010–2019, it has entered into crucial sectors of Bangladesh like communication, defence manufacturing and infrastructure development.

SriLanka has already leased out a sea port to China which is being used by Chinese navy.

Myanmar has already provided China a few ports.

China has consistently shown keen interest in engaging with South Asian countries as it provides them an entry to the Indian Ocean as well as it helps to strategically constrain India.  

Russia Redefining its Strategic Interests: Getting Closer to Pakistan

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The terror organizations and their mentor ; Pak ISI are always having a keen eye on developments in India and so every time they carry out a major terror attack, it has a purpose ; political or military.

Although, this is surely not the first time that Terrorists have carried out targeted attacks against Hindus and Sikhs , they have done so many a times before, but these recent attacks also like the previous ones have a purpose because the Sikhs and Hindus were first identified and shot for being who they are. Therefore, the presence of Muslim casualties, should not be an excuse for soft peddling this fact.

In order to take stock of the situation, we need to understand the purpose and respond as a Nation and as a Society accordingly. The purposes can be ;

One. Create a Political situation where in the BJP which considers itself a messiah of Hindus is discredited. No wonder, the first reaction from various Policial outfits in India was ; BJP has failed to provide security to Hindus and Sikhs. Neither the Demonetization nor the abrogation of article 370 has helped reduction in terrorism. This may surely dent the BJP’s image and in particular Mr Modi’s image, as savior of Hindus. These attacks play squarely into the politics of communalism in India. The plight of Hindus, and now Sikhs in Kashmir, has always been communally exploited.

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The long wait.

Last year feburary Air Marshal Philip Rajkumar (Retd), an 80 years old airforce pilot became the oldest man to fly the indigenous Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas. When spoken to, he expressed his delight , Not because the retired IAF officer, was the oldest man to fly the Tejas But because he had seen the aircraft mature into a full-fledged operational fighter from the days of the drawing board. As a test pilot, he was in the Tejas hot seat for the fighter’s first 98 flights as the program director of the project way back in 90s.

It was in 1983 that the Government of India, then led by Indira Gandhi, rolled out a project to build a new LCA as a replacement for the Russian MiG-21s. The plan was to carry out the first flight of the new aircraft by 1994. However, the first prototype of LCA flew only in 2001. It was at the time that the then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee named the LCA “Tejas”. In December 2013, the Tejas got Initial Operational Clearance and, in 2019, the IAF was given the first aircraft with Final Operational Clearance.

This tells us as to how lengthy, tedious and frustrating is the route to develop and manufacture a sophisticated war machinery indigenously. This is the story of almost all military equipment that India tried manufacturing locally ; the Arjun TANK,the Prithvi, Agni , Akash missiles, the Pinakas, etc .They have taken a long time to reach the customer and sadly the world did not wait for them and by the time they get inducted the technology gets obsolete and the customer once again puts up a fresh demand LIST, after all, the enemies that he has to fight have already moved ahead and are equipping themselves with the latest.

Now that the Cabinet Committee on Security approved a Rs 48,000-crore deal for 83 Tejas, which include 73 Mark 1A versionsNAND 10X mK 1, which will be provided by the Govt managed Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). Implying each aircraft is costing almost 500 crores. This is over and above thousands of crores already spent on its Development.

It is hell of a lot of money and so as a tax payer, it is our responsibility to evaluate and examine as to how our money is being spent by the Govt and whether the tall claims made by the Govt and its officials meet our security needs. More over, why does Govt owned factories take so much time that may lead to cost escalation and even then no action is taken against the erring manufacturer. Unless the tax payer starts objecting to this gross mismangement , the Govt owned manufacturer will have no concern for the Quality and Schedule of supply.

We must remember that gone are the days when wars were fought in a battle field of few sq kms or on borders, and the citizens could go on doing their job unconcerned about what is happening on the front. With improvement in technology , Today's armed conflicts look quite different: city centers and residential areas can become battle fields. Wars can now move into the lives, cities and homes of ordinary people in a more vicious way than ever before, and impact our livelihoods and occupations.

In view of the above, as regards the Airforce, we as tax payers need to understand following ;

1. What are the Capabilities of IAF and What are the Grey Areas.

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